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Recycled PSF market: watch and see

2019-09-18 09:45:11 CCFGroup

Oil prices soared on Monday, after an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities last Saturday shut over 5% of global supply. PTA futures rose by 166yuan/mt to 5,270yuan/mt, with an increment of 3.25%, and MEG futures climbed up 237yuan/mt to 4,993yuan/mt, hitting the up limit for the first time since it was listed.



Polyester product prices also ticked up driven by this sentiment. Virgin PFY rose by 100-200yuan/mt partially, and direct-spun PSF 1.4D was up by 100-350yuan/mt. SD PET fiber chip offers moved up to 6,800-7,000yuan/mt. Sales of virgin PFY were relatively good Monday, with sales ratio averaged at 260-270% till PM 3:00 Monday, and sales of direct-spun PSF were smooth, with sales ratio mostly at 200-300%, highly at 300-400%.

The continuity of this bullish sentiment depends on the recovery of oil supply. If Saudi Arabia takes long time to recover the supply, or the worsening geopolitical circumstance influences oil production and shipping tube, oil prices may keep upward.

For the influence on China recycled PSF market:
There is no direct impact on recycled PSF market. Nevertheless, recycled chemical fiber prices refer to the virgin polyester market. Polyester product prices move up, leading to larger price spread with recycled chemical fiber. Under the good sentiment, the recycled chemical fiber could be sold and prices might drive up somewhat. For the performance on Monday, the stimulus was limited. Offers of close virgin PSF rose by 100yuan/mt in Hebei and Yizheng, and in Wujiang, prices were firm, and sales were smooth. HC re-PSF market kept standing on the sidelines, sales were only slightly better in Shandong. In Zhejiang, sales were modest, and some plants planned to suspend operation during the National Day holiday. In Guangdong, sales were ordinary, and inventory was relatively high. Plants reflected that orders reduced, and demand was weak. Most market players held looking-on mood.

For late market, the fundamental is relatively good in Sep. Operating rate of polyester plants is relatively high, and profits and inventory performs well. Especially the 1.4D direct-spun PSF, there is basically no inventory in plants. Prices are easy to rise, and hard to decrease. Therefore, close virgin PSF may be firm and follow up, while HC re-PSF market focuses on selling. For the market in the fourth quarter, demand may weaken, and the new capacity of PX and PTA will weigh on the market. Pay attention to the supply release and the situation in Middle East.

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