ACN market: prepare for Carnival after LNY

China acrylonitrile market shows a momentum to go up after the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday. The mainstream traders say they have no spot availabilities to sell and are unwilling to offer prices. For producers, Shanghai Secco raises the offers first to 12,300yuan/mt. In March, the market players may push up the prices overall, and concern more about the how much will the price increase.

The bullish market sentiment after the holiday is attributed to many factors. Firstly, under the inflation expectation, hot money is likely to step into the market, and speculation is possible by favorable news. For plant news, Cornerstone and Ascend declares force majeure and Ineos’ 300kta ACN unit in Cologne is still closed. The supply tightness has shored up the prices. On Feb 16, European spot prices have risen to $1908-1912/mt CIF ARA and US spot prices move up to $1802-1830/mt FOB USG. In domestic market, Shanghai Secco’s one 260kta production line is expected to be closed in Apr, for 25 days of maintenance. Though it is a planned maintenance, it remains a good news to stimulate the market. The slow delivery at port has eased slightly before the holiday, but the stagnant logistics during the holiday restrains the transportation demand. In addition, downstream plants maintain the sales this holiday, and operating rate sees no obvious reduction. Therefore, the demand for feedstock is seen after the holiday.

Of course, market players’ attitude is also affected the market. The settlement price of 11,650yuan/mt in Jan is generally higher than market anticipation. In face of the losses, traders want to make up losses in late market. However, to push up the Feb settlement price is not welcomed by players, to be reluctant sellers is a better choice.