Spandex value chain: uptrend hard to change temporarily

Spandex market was in uptrend after the Spring Festival holiday, following gains on upstream market. The increment of BDO market outpaced other products amid short supply and strong downstream demand. With surging feedstock prices, tight supply and improving downstream demand, spandex prices firmly chased up. Upward tendency on spandex value chain will be hard to alter amid sound fundamental in short run based on the following logic.

BDO and PTMEG market:

Supply of spot BDO remained short. Sellers mainly guaranteed term volume, with little supply for spot transactions. However, demand from downstream sectors such as PTMEG, GBL, PBT and spandex market was buoyant. One thing should be noted: Affected by continuously jumping price, some players on PU market have turned to use other more cost-effective materials instead of BDO. Buyers were cautious in purchasing under high price and mainly purchased to cover the most pressing demand. However, prices of BDO are expected to sustain firm as supply is tight and sellers are reluctant to sell, expecting price to surge.

Supply of PTMEG was still in shortage and downstream players hoped upstream feedstock supply to be ample to guarantee production. Offers for PTMEG 1800 were mainly at 43,000-45,000yuan/mt in Mar, negotiable in actual transactions, up by 18,000-22,000yuan/mt compared with Feb. Demand for PTMEG was hot and prices of upstream and downstream products both climbed. Price of PTMEG is anticipated to hike further.

Spandex market:

Production cost of spandex hiked with surging BDO price and bigger increment of PTMEG in Mar. In addition, operating rate of downstream plants gradually ascended after Spring Festival holiday. Supported by sound demand and booming upstream market, prices of spandex extended higher. Current prices of spandex were mixed. The operating rate of spandex was still at 95%. Most spandex companies ran at full capacity now. Stocks of spandex climbed to 8 days, sustaining low.

Spandex companies strongly intend to raise price boosted by growing rigid demand and mounting cost. In short run, prices of spandex are anticipated to move higher amid short supply but risk will enlarge too after price surged. Spandex inventory of some downstream players is around 15-30 days. Later procurement of downstream market should be noted.

All in all, spandex value chain is still anticipated to extend higher in short run. Downstream order and procurement change should be concerned after price surged.