PFY exports boom in H1 2021 but may shrink in H2

Exports of PFY increased by 44.6% on the year to 1632.4kt in Jan-Jun, 2021, up by 23.1% compared with the same period of 2019. Average exports of PFY skyrocketed in the first quarter, with monthly volume at 301kt, and earlier monthly high was only around 230kt. Exports of PFY apparently dropped in the second quarter, averaged at 243kt, still higher than the same period of past years.

In May, with tight container and hiking sea freight, export of PFY was lower than the corresponding period of 2017 and 2019. Exports of PFY hit historic new high in the rest months of the first half of year, especially in Mar at 370kt. It may be hard to see high export volume at 370kt in the following 2-3 years.

Exports of PFY to Turkey, Vietnam, South Korea and Mexico reduced in the first half of 2021 compared with 2019 level as these 4 nations imposed anti-dumping duty on PFY from China. Turkey made the final decision in Jan 2021 and will continue levying 5-year of anti-dumping duty. Vietnam launched anti-dumping investigation on PFY from China from Apr 2020. South Korea started anti-dumping investigation on FDY from China on Jan 27, 2021. Mexico launched anti-dumping investigation on PFY from Mar 31, 2020 but it will not levy provisionary anti-dumping duty based on the initial decision on May 14, 2021.

Exports of PFY to India grew substantially in the first half of 2021 affected by the anti-dumping issue and because the freight rate to India was more competitive to that of Turkey, particularly in 2021 with surging sea freight. Many PFY producers in China were more willing to export PFY to India, which weighed on the market share of Turkey.

Exports of PFY to India have been low for years due to the anti-dumping issue, mainly POY, while it hiked at the beginning of 2021 after India temporarily cancelled the anti-dumping duty while dropped dramatically in Apr-May affected by the pandemic outside China and soaring sea freight and rebounded again in Jun stimulated by FDY. However, it lacked durability.

On June 30, 2021, India launched the first anti-dumping sunset review investigation on elastomeric filament yarns originated from China, which covered all deniers up to and including 150 Deniers, excluding colored yams and Beam type elastomeric yarns.

This news from India means that the domestic PFY factories will not ship freely to India like the first half of the year, and this part of loss is difficult to make up in other regions, coupled with high freight rate which is difficult to see downtrend in the short term. Exports of PFY may be hard to be as hot as the first half of 2021 during the second half of year, more like to shrink.