PET bottle chip export order intake exceeds 400kt in Jan – ChinaTexnet.com
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PET bottle chip export order intake exceeds 400kt in Jan

2022-02-11 08:05:37 CCFGroup

Post-Spring Festival holiday, PET bottle chip price hiked 250-400yuan/mt. Spot discussion for near-term goods have risen to 8300-8500yuan/mt by cash EXW, and prevailing discussion for Apr-Aug goods was at 8235-8370yuan/mt. Mainstream export talks in E. China lifted to $1150-1195/mt FOB Shanghai, up $30-50/mt from pre-holiday level.

 

In fact, PET bottle chip industry fundamentals are strong, coupled with low factory inventory and tight spot supply, which forms a pattern that is easy to rise and difficult to drop. After the holiday, as raw materials cost hiked, PET market price naturally moves higher. According to CCFGroup statistics, China PET bottle chip export order intake exceeded 400kt in Jan 2022, up nearly 60% from a year earlier, flat from Sep 2021 high. So far, most plants begin to sell Q2 orders. Though the newly online unit is offering materials in Jan, its impact is limited, as its monthly output may not reach 900kt. PET resin export share is expected to reach above 45% in Jan.

 

So far, it can be basically confirmed that the domestic export delivery volume of PET bottle chip will not be too small in Q1. It is estimated that the export volume will be around 350000 tons in January, 250000-300000 tons in February and slightly above 400000 tons in March. However, it mainly depends on the final arrangement of the shipping schedule. In terms of domestic sales, orders in the second quarter are still on the loose side. However, precisely because domestic and foreign sales orders have been taken in ahead of time, since the second quarter, if the pace of order intake slows down, PET bottle chip factories are expected to turnaround ahead of schedule. The specific time is not determined now, for example, it was originally scheduled in April, but in view of the tight delivery, it may also be postponed to the end of June. Therefore, it is expected that the total inventory will slip to around 1 million tons by the end of March, nearly 200000 tons lower than that at the end of last year, while it’s of small chance to accumulate in the second quarter, mainly depending on the maintenance plans by then.

 

PET bottle chip market may destock in Q1. After the new capacity coming on line, Mar output may ramp up to above 950kt, which means if excluding 300-400kt for export and 500-700kt for domestic sales, bottle chip factory's spot inventory is likely to be negative, and the intermediate circulation cannot be well guaranteed. So there is still a gap for traders and some downstream factories. This can be seen only by looking at whether or not traders still have concentrated replenishment from late February to March. Of course, this is also based on the current good performance of export sales. In the later stage, if export order intake is not sustainable, then after the concentrated delivery in the peak season, the PET bottle chip market will gradually face sales pressure in the second half of the year.

 

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