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Analysis of China Q1 PX imports by origins

2022-05-18 08:02:47 CCFGroup

According to China Customs, the country imported 1.149 million tons of PX in Mar, up 22.1% month-on-month but down 9.5% year-o-year. China PX imports reached 3.295 million tons in the first quarter of 2022, down 3.6% on year and down 2.8% from a quarter earlier. In the meantime, the average operating rate of Asian PX plants (excluding Chinese mainland) in the first quarter of 2022 dropped 5.9% year-on-year and 2.3% from the fourth quarter of 2021. It reflects that the drop in China PX imports was bigger than the production loss in Asia in the first quarter.

 

PX001.png

 

China PX imports by origins (unit: kt)

Origin Q4-21 Q1-22 Change Import qoq change Production qoq change
South Korea 1,316 1,432 116 9% -1%
Japan 435 549 114 26% 14%
Brunei 402 315 -87 -22% -2%
Taiwan 319 284 -35 -11% 4%
Singapore 91 149 58 64% -7%
Kuwait 96 105 9 10% -4%
Vietnam 89 103 14 16% -9%
Malaysia 97 85 -12 -13% -59%
India 130 70 -60 -46% -5%
Thailand 89 58 -31 -36% -2%
Iran 61 51 -10 -17% -2%
Saudi Arabia 128 34 -94 -74% -16%
Indonesia 20 31 11 56% -2%
Oman 117 30 -87 -74% -100%
Total 3,390 3,295 -95 -3% -4%

 

In terms of origins, the increase in PX imports in the first quarter of 2022 mainly came from South Korea, Japan and Singapore. Meanwhile, PX production rose in Japan but decreased in South Korea and Singapore over the same period.

 

According to South Korea’s Customs, its PX exports were little changed in the first quarter. However, the export volume to Chinese mainland dropped by 85kt, to Taiwan increased by 80kt and to Japan rose by 5kt from a quarter earlier. South Korea’s PX production was largely stable, reducing by less than 30kt in the first quarter, according to CCFGroup’s statistics. With the shipment schedule considered as a variant, the country’s export change broadly coincided with the production change.

 

PX002.png

 

As for Japan, the customs has only released Jan-Feb data. Japan PX production was estimated to increase by 30kt month-on-month and exports rose 36kt in Jan-Feb 2022. The exports to China increased by 41kt while that to Taiwan reduced by 5kt in that period, according to Japan’s Customs. With the shipment schedule considered, the change was in regular range.

 

As for Singapore, its PX production decreased by about 20kt in the first quarter of 2022, and the PX exports reduced by 15kt from a quarter earlier. The exports to China increased by 40kt while that to Indonesia, Taiwan and Thailand declined by a combined 59kt, according to Singapore’s Customs. The export to India increased fractionally.

 

In the first quarter, China PX imports from Brunei, Oman, Saudi Arabia and India reduced.

 

1. Imports from Brunei decreased notably, according to China Customs data, while Brunei’s PX production only reduced by less than 10kt. It was mainly because that it would take time for the shipments to arrive and thus the imported cargoes are expected to increase in Apr.

 

2. Imports from Oman declined sharply, as Oman Aromatics’ plant had been shut since late Dec 2021. The restart date of the plant is undecided, and thus China’s PX imports from Oman are expected to further decrease.

 

3. Imports from Saudi Arabia reduced obviously. The drop was mainly attributed to production loss of 60kt in the first quarter and PX cargoes could flow to high-priced Europe and US markets.

 

4. India’s OMPL has shut its PX plant since H1 Nov 2021, leading to decline in domestic production. PX to China decreased faster than the drop in local production mainly because of the time that shipments take to arrive.

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