China acrylonitrile price likely to be weak in June

China acrylonitrile (ACN ) prices have stepped downward gradually in the first half month of June, down from 11,250yuan/mt on Jun 1 to 10,850yuan/mt on Jun 15, a decline of 3.56%, according to CCFGroup. Currently, the ACN market supply is loose, and market offers gradually weaken.

After the start-up of Lihuayi and Sierbang, the selling pressure on spot market continues to weigh on the market. The support from the plant maintenance and delayed restart on prices is less effective. In 2022, foreign units have no big turnaround plans, so producers mainly cut operating rate/production and promote sales by discounts to control inventory. However, the effectiveness is dampened affected by epidemic.

Propylene prices also go downward first during the period, while with the expectation of higher oil prices, propylene prices rebound recently, and the pressure on ACN market increases.

Downstream ABS and acrylic fiber operating rate maintains high overall. In June, operating rate of ABS plants is basically at 90%, and that of acrylic fiber is around 80%. The improvement space is supposed to be limited later.

Overall, the China ACN market lacks obvious positive stimulus and demand is hard to increase. With ample supply, the ACN market is still likely to be weak. But with the losses, producers may cut production or operating rate later. Before this action, prices may remain weak.