China's PTMEG exports soar above 100% in H1 2022

According to the data from China customs, exports of PTMEG totaled 43.9kt in the first half of 2022, up 148% on the year, and the export unit price was at $6.031/kg, up $1.556/kg on annual basis. As supply was short outside China in recent two years due to the unit problem, exports of PTMEG kept hiking.

Exports to Europe and Asia apparently soared. The export volume to Turkey and Brazil intensively spiked and that to Europe also skyrocketed.

Changing supply and demand pattern outside China was the major driving force for increasing export. There were no new PTMEG capacity abroad in recent years and some units were eliminated. As a result, supply of PTMEG decreased, with composite growth rate of capacity at -1% outside China. Supply of PTMEG gradually advanced in recent two years in China, with the composite growth rate near 3% in Chinese mainland. Although there were no new units in the first half of 2022, supply rose in projects that started operation in end-2021. Therefore, the effective supply of PTMEG climbed up.

Remark: it is based on the capacity in mid-year

Price of energy was high and supply of energy was insufficient since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The cost of PTMEG ascended outside China. Price of PTMEG was high and supply was tight. After demand recovered and production rose outside China, exports of PTMEG improved in China. In addition, after supply increased, some integrated enterprises expanded export.

Some new PTMEG units will be launched in the second half of 2022. With growing supply, enterprises will continue showing high export activity. Terminal demand may face bigger pressure outside China in the second half of year with the worry of inflation and economic recession. As domestic PTMEG is still anticipated to enjoy advantage in terms of supply and price, export tends to increase while it will be more difficult to keep high growth rate.