Refined cotton export of China in 2022 may hit new highs by exceeding 80kt

In the context of the turbulent market environment this year, the export of most textiles and chemical fibers has become more difficult, while the export of refined cotton is eye-catching as the volume in the first three quarters is close to the whole-year number of 2021 and the total export of 2022 may hit new highs.

The export of refined cotton outshines others, despite weak macro environment. According to customs data, China exports 6.582kt of refined cotton in Sep 2022, a m-o-m decrease of 1% but a y-o-y growth of 57.2%. In the first nine months of 2022, the exports amount to 62.876kt, up 24.1% y-o-y, close to the whole-year volume of 2016 or 2020 and the export of 2022 is likely to set a record high of exceeding 80kt.

The export price of refined cotton has been shivering around $2,300/mt after breaking through $2,000/mt. The export price in Sep is around $2,300/mt, down 0.3% m-o-m but up 33.5% y-o-y. In the first nine months of 2022, the export price averages at $2,306/mt, up 55.9% y-o-y.

There is high concentration of the origins. Shandong and Anhui still rank the top two places in Sep as the import from those two provinces takes up 65% of total. They also take the leading positions during Jan-Sep this year with the percentage of more than 68%.

China exports refined cotton to almost 30 countries (regions), but mainly concentrating in the top five especially the top three ones. In Sep this year, Netherlands, South Korea and Japan rank the top three places as the export to the three countries occupies almost 50% of total. In the first nine months of 2022, the export to those areas takes up almost 59% of total.

In conclusion, the global energy and food crisis has emerged due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict this year. The export of China’s chemical fertilizer is better and coupled with the abnormal dissolving pulp supply outside China, the refined cotton export market performance is eye-catching and the export volume is likely to set a record high of over 80kt. Moreover, the export price generally stays at high level of around $2,300/mt this year and has hit a historical high. The concentration of origins and destinations is also improving.