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Changes in PP O/R and inventory around the Spring Festival

2023-02-08 08:25:08 CCFGroup

Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, PP spot market shows some signs of pushing up, and prices move higher compared with the pre-holiday period, but due to the slow resumption of downstream, market transaction is thin.

1. Changes in the operating rate.

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Company	Location	Capacity(kta)	Shutdown	Restarted	Note
Shaoxing Sanyuan #1	Shaoxing	200	2023.1.15	2023.2.15	shutdown
Hebei Lihe Zhixin I	Cangzhou	300	2023.1.19	/	shutdown
Shandong shouguang LuQing petrochemical #1	shouguang	150	2023.1.20	/	shutdown
Xuzhou Haitian	Xuzhou	200	2023.1.20	/	shutdown
Datang Duolun #1	Inner Mongolia	230	2023.1.24	2023.2.4	shutdown
Datang Duolun #2	Inner Mongolia	230	2023.1.24	2023.2.4	shutdown
Sinopec Zhongyuan PC #2	Puyang	100	2023.1.12	2023.1.15	Restarted
Sinopec Jingmeng PC	Jingmeng	120	2022.11.1	2023.1.20	Restarted
Qingdao Jineng Technology I	Qingdao	450	2022.11.30	2023.1.27	Restarted

Overall, around the Spring Festival holiday, except for some plants shut or restart, the rest of the plants maintain normal production, the overall operating rate is maintained at 85-88%, of which Datang Duolun shut on January 24, which has a relatively obvious impact on the operating rate.

Date	HOMO PP raffia	HOMO PP injection	HOMO PP fiber	Low-MFR co PP	BOPP	CPP	PP pipe	PP special material	Closed
2023-1-16	30.35%	10.51%	10.93%	21.17%	6.88%	2.33%	2.99%	2.84%	12.01%
2023-1-17	30.80%	10.42%	11.66%	20.96%	6.59%	0.85%	3.87%	2.84%	12.01%
2023-1-18	29.62%	10.99%	13.27%	21.14%	6.59%	0.85%	3.87%	1.67%	12.01%
2023-1-19	30.20%	9.76%	12.39%	21.85%	6.59%	0.85%	3.06%	2.40%	12.88%
2023-1-20	30.85%	8.49%	13.42%	22.15%	6.15%	0.79%	1.89%	2.75%	13.51%
2023-1-21	32.17%	8.49%	11.51%	22.15%	5.86%	0.50%	1.89%	3.93%	13.51%
2023-1-22	32.17%	8.96%	11.04%	22.15%	5.86%	0.50%	1.89%	3.93%	13.51%
2023-1-23	32.46%	8.96%	11.04%	22.15%	5.57%	0.50%	1.89%	3.93%	13.51%
2023-1-24	31.79%	8.96%	11.04%	20.65%	5.57%	0.50%	2.71%	3.93%	14.86%
2023-1-25	32.66%	8.37%	11.04%	19.77%	5.27%	0.21%	3.59%	4.22%	14.86%
2023-1-26	32.96%	7.90%	11.22%	19.77%	5.27%	0.21%	3.59%	4.22%	14.86%
2023-1-27	32.83%	7.90%	12.54%	19.77%	5.27%	0.21%	3.59%	4.22%	13.68%
2023-1-28	35.76%	9.63%	8.44%	21.33%	5.13%	0.21%	2.36%	3.49%	13.68%
2023-1-29	33.85%	12.15%	8.44%	19.39%	6.44%	0.56%	2.36%	3.13%	13.68%
2023-1-30	34.89%	11.17%	8.26%	18.81%	5.57%	1.14%	2.77%	3.72%	13.68%

From the point of view of production proportion, the proportion of homo PP raffia increases slightly, while most decline.

Second, changes in inventory.

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Chinese calendar	The day before the Chinese New Year's Eve	The seventh day of the first lunar month	Changes
2021	2021.2.10	2021.2.18
2021	595	940	345
2022	2022.1.30	2022.2.7
2022	605	990	385
2023	2023.1.20	2023.1.28
2023	510	840	330

The Spring Festival holiday is still the regular cycle of rapid accumulation of PP inventories, but comparing the data of previous years, the situation in 2023 is better than expected. From the overall level, the current inventory is on the medium side and does not pose a large pressure for the time being.

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