Outflows of PX from Middle East during 2018-2022

In the analysis of PX trade outflows from Middle East, restricted by the low accessibility of export data, we calculate the statistics of other countries' imports of PX from Middle East, due to the small number of major countries with deficit of local PX. As Turkey and Israel have small capacity of PX and the exports were just over 10,000 tons in the past 5 years, the analysis for Middle East only includes exports from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iran and Kuwait.

During 2018-2022, PX exports from Oman reduced obviously in 2022, while the exports from other countries decreased fractionally while maintaining largely stable. Though China PX capacity expanded heavily, the outflows of materials from Middle East was little affected.

1. Saudi Arabia

PX exports from Saudi Arabia were little changed during 2018-2022, averaging 980kt a year. Since 2019, the exports to China had been declining, down by 92.7% as of 2022. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia diverted materials to the US and Portugal. From 2018 to 2022, PX exports from Saudi Arabia to US and Portugal surged by 838% and 220% respectively. The exports to India reduced obviously in 2019 and 2020, but then rebounded in 2021 to the level seen before the pandemic.

2. Oman

China remains the largest destination for Oman's PX exports. The volume of PX exports from Oman averaged about 612kt per year during 2018-2021. However, the volume declined sharply in 2022 due to the shutdown of plant. It is noteworthy that the exports to Taiwan, India and Thailand each increased to around 40-50kt a year, indicating that Oman had to look for new buyers due to China's intensive PX capacity expansion though China remained the biggest destination.

3. Kuwait

Kuwait's PX exports were largely stable, at about 576kt per year. Similar to the situation in Oman, Kuwait exported the largest proportion of PX to China, but the volume showed the downtrend, down by 52% from the year of 2018 to 2022. The materials were diverted to Taiwan, US, Turkey, India, Malaysia, Portugal, indicating that Kuwait turned to more buyers to export PX compared with Oman. Its PX exports reduced by 9.6% in 2022 compared to 2018, due to plant shutdown.

4. Iran

Iran exported PX only to China, due to sanctions by western countries on Iran. Its export volume increased before dropping during 2018-2022. The exports to China increased in 2021, up by 200kt from 2018. However, due to the capacity expansion in China, the exports reduced by 96kt on year in 2022, and the volume is expected to further decline with capacity expanding in China.

In a conclusion, China stays the largest destination for PX exports from Middle East, while China domestic PX capacity expands fast, and thus the exports from those countries are affected. Saudi Arabia diverts materials to US, Portugal, Taiwan and Indonesia; Oman resorts to US, Taiwan, India and Thailand; Kuwait has more options with goods to Taiwan, US, Turkey, India, Malaysia, India, etc; while it would be more difficult for Iran.