A situation of "tripartite confrontation" in cotton linter import market

The import volume of cotton linter at the beginning of the year was much lower than market expectations, but it gradually increased month by month and returned to normal levels. However, the concentration of the origins and destinations has significantly improved this year, forming a situation of "tripartite confrontation".

Starting from Feb this year, the import volume of cotton linter has been increasing month by month. In Jun, there was even a tendency for the volume to double compared to the previous month, reaching 12.964kt, a m-o-m increase of 95.5% and a y-o-y growth of 71.1%, reaching the peak level since Jun of last year.

From the perspective of import origins, the concentration of imported cotton linter has significantly increased this year, mainly from three countries and regions like India, Brazil, and Turkey. In Jun, the import from those three countries accounted for a high proportion of 99.5%. In the first half of the year, the import accounted for 93.5%.

The largest decrease in imports this year is from the US, with an import volume of less than 30 tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 99.6%. The import from India increased significantly to 12.32kt in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. In addition, there are imports from Tanzania and Central Asia, but the overall proportion is small, accounting for less than 6% in the first half of the year.

In terms of the destinations, the import of cotton linter is also relatively concentrated this year. In Jun, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui were essentially on "equal footing", with a proportion of 81% for the month. In the first half of the year, the combined proportion of these three provinces accounted for about 73%, occupying a significant dominant position.

Xinjiang sees the largest decrease in imports this year, with the import volume of approximately 177.6 tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 96.4%. Hunan and Inner Mongolia import cotton linter for the first time in many years, with the proportion of about 4.1% and 1.2% respectively in the first half of the year.

In conclusion, due to factors such as high beginning stocks and sluggish downstream demand recovery, the import volume of cotton linter was relatively low at the beginning of the year, but gradually warmed up month by month and doubled in Jun. However, with the increased concentration of production by enterprises, India, Brazil, and Turkey have essentially dominated the market, while Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces have relatively even shares, forming a situation of "tripartite confrontation".