How will cotton linter perform with new arrival of cottonseed?

Seed cotton has gradually arrive in south Xinjiang and Chinese inland, while the procurement price is high as seed cotton for wadding is between 9 and 9.5yuan/kg, and the purchasing volume is generally small. There is less arrival of new cottonseed with prices going down. Cotton linter prices stagnate somehow with the approaching of new arrival.

Seed cotton in Chinese inland has been gradually harvested since late Aug with prices opening high. Since the beginning of Sep, seed cotton in southern Xinjiang has also been picked, but on a trial basis mainly for wadding, and the purchase volume is generally low. Recently, trades in old cottonseed market are thin, with a small amount of new cottonseed arriving at the market and prices falling. Cotton linter market remains stable for now.

Since late Aug, seed cotton in Hubei, Hebei, Hunan, Shandong and Anhui has been harvested successively, with prices opening high around 8.6yuan/kg. Since the beginning of Sep, seed cotton for wadding from southern Xinjiang has also been harvested, and prices have dropped from 9.6-9.8yuan/kg to 9.0-9.2yuan/kg. However, the purchase volume remains low. New cottonseed is sold in advance with offer at 3,300yuan/mt in Xinjiang. Due to high moisture content outside Xinjiang with sporadic resources arriving at the market, the offers have dropped to around 3,500yuan/mt.

With the arrival of machine-picked seed cotton in Xinjiang from late Sep to Oct, cottonseed price still faces downward trend. At present, cotton by-products such as cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal prices are falling, and cotton linter market stagnates somehow. New cotton linter is likely to gradually arrive in late Sep, and most cottonseed oil and delinting plants plan to start processing around the National Day. Looking at the trend in previous years, due to the pressure from new cotton linter entering the market and temporary imbalances in supply and demand, the future price is more likely to decline than rise.

In conclusion, the supply of new cottonseed is still limited, but will absolutely increase after late Sep, especially around the National Day when the picking of new cotton speeds up, thus the price will be falling. Before the arrival of new cottonseed on large quantity, cotton linter market will be at a stalemate during the transition period, but according to the trend in prior years, the price will be easier to fall than to rise when the supply and demand is imbalanced after new resources arrive.