Will a sharp decline in cottonseed price weigh on cotton linter?

Since late Aug to early Sep, hand-picked seed cotton has been gradually procured, and machine-picked seed cotton has started to be purchased since mid-to-late Sep. This year, ginneries have shown relatively low enthusiasm for rushing to purchase, and the purchasing price of seed cotton has presented a "high first and then low" trend. Recently, the supply of new cottonseed has been gradually increasing, and prices have dropped significantly. New cotton linter is gradually arriving at the market with basically stable prices.

In mid-to-late Sep, machine-picked seed cotton in Xinjiang began to be purchased, and the harvesting speed accelerated after late Sep. Before the National Day holiday, the procurement price fell to 6.0-6.1yuan/kg, and that for some cotton with high moisture content was around 5.6-5.9yuan/kg. In H2 of the holiday, the purchasing prices rose somewhat, mostly ranging within 6.0-6.3yuan/kg. At present, the mainstream purchasing price is basically stable at around 6.0-6.2yuan/kg. The harvesting progress of seed cotton in North Xinjiang has reached 50%, and some regions have reached 70%. The harvesting progress of seed cotton in South Xinjiang is nearly 20%. As the harvesting of seed cotton progresses steadily, the supply of cottonseed has gradually increased. Recently, the price of new cottonseed has dropped significantly, and that in Xinjiang has fallen from 2,500yuan/mt to around 2,150yuan/mt (slightly higher in the south and lower in the north).

During the National Day holiday, the purchasing price of seed cotton first fell and then rose, and it still rose steadily after the holiday. Recently, affected by the news that Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, the price of seed cotton has declined again. However, the mainstream purchasing price of seed cotton in the 2025/26 crop year has not fluctuated much, mainly at 6.0-6.3yuan/kg. The increased supply of new cottonseed has weighed on the price. New cotton linter in Shandong and Xinjiang has gradually arrived at the market, with prices mainly showing a stable trend. At present, the price of cotton linter for industry-grade refined cotton in inland areas is around 3,400-3,500yuan/mt. In Xinjiang, the price of cotton linter for industry-grade and food-grade refined cotton is respectively around 3,100-3,200yuan/mt and 3,300-3,400yuan/mt.

To sum up, hand-picked seed cotton for wadding began to be purchased from late Aug to early Sep, and machine-picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was put on the market successively in late Sep. Ginners have made rational purchases, with the mainstream purchasing prices at 6.0-6.3yuan/kg. Recently, the supply of cottonseed has been gradually increasing, putting pressure on the price to fall, and is expected to remain weak in the short term. After the National Day holiday, cottonseed oil and delinting mills in Shandong and Xinjiang have started the processing for new cotton season. New cotton linter has gradually arrived at the market, and prices are temporarily stable.