India's cotton output may fall 2.4% to 305 lakh bales in 2025–26: CAI

India’s trade body has estimated that the country’s cotton production may fall by 2.42 per cent to 305 lakh bales of 170 kg each in the 2025–26 marketing season, which began in October 2025. Lower acreage and late rains in key cotton-growing regions have contributed to the decline.

The Cotton Association of India (CAI), in its first pressing estimate for the season, pegged production at 305 lakh bales compared with 312.4 lakh bales in 2024–25.

According to the association’s monthly report, total cotton supply for October 2025 stood at 93.17 lakh bales, comprising 24.58 lakh bales pressed, 8 lakh bales imported, and an opening stock of 60.59 lakh bales. The total supply for the full 2025–26 season is projected at 410.59 lakh bales, higher than the 392.59 lakh bales recorded last year.

Domestic consumption is expected to ease to 300 lakh bales, down from 314 lakh bales in 2024–25, while exports are forecast to dip slightly to 17 lakh bales from 18 lakh bales. Imports, however, are projected to rise to 45 lakh bales from 41 lakh bales a year ago, reflecting increased demand from spinning mills amid tight domestic availability.

The CAI noted that total cotton supply for the season—including the opening stock of 60.59 lakh bales, production of 305 lakh bales, and imports of 45 lakh bales—is pegged at 410.59 lakh bales. The export projection of 17 lakh bales signals a modest year-on-year decline, as global price competitiveness and domestic parity remain tight. Imports are expected to rise by around 10 per cent, driven by demand for premium quality fibre and blending requirements.

The closing stock at the end of September 2026 is projected at 93.59 lakh bales—up 33 lakh bales from the previous year’s closing inventory—indicating improved domestic availability for the next season. The CAI added that its members from 11 cotton-growing states will continue to monitor pressing numbers closely and revise estimates as necessary.