PET bottle chip price drops to a periodic low, with daily transaction volume exceeding 100,000 again

At the beginning of this week, as the domestic PET bottle chip market prices fell near a periodic low, downstream buyers and traders actively entered the market to buy the dip and restock, leading to a noticeable improvement in market trading sentiment. As of now, daily domestic transaction orders have approached 140,000 tons.

We believe that this wave of concentrated restocking primarily stems from two factors. On the one hand, current PET bottle chip prices have dropped to the low range of the year, specifically around 5,600–5,750yuan/mt ex-factory (excluding the sharp decline in April caused by special macroeconomic events), reaching the psychological price level for many market participants. There is a widespread belief that current prices have entered or are approaching the bottom range, with limited room for further declines, making restocking relatively less risky at this stage. On the other hand, as the year-end approaches, the market needs to prepare raw materials in advance, leading to a concentrated release of restocking demand from both traders and downstream buyers. Additionally, the relatively favorable basis between futures and spot prices, driven by the rapid decline in futures, has also contributed to the booming market transactions to some extent.

Based on market feedback, the sales pace of PET bottle chip producers has accelerated recently, with some producers even experiencing queuing for loading of certain specifications. Traders have also gradually started to build positions. As of last Friday, the average inventory days for domestic PET bottle chip producers have dropped to around 15 days. However, it is worth noting that the supply-demand dynamics of the PET bottle chip market have not fundamentally changed, and the overall strength of demand recovery remains to be observed. On the export front, after a brief price increase earlier, overseas customers have shown hesitation in restocking, with limited growth in new orders. As prices fall to periodic lows, some demand orders may gradually be executed.

Overall, given the significant increase in trading volume in the PET bottle chip market, the range of 5,600–5,700yuan/mt may form a temporary price bottom in the short term. However, regarding whether the PET bottle chip market is likely to experience a strong periodic rebound, considering that the supply-demand structure has not improved substantially and the downward trend in upstream raw material futures remains unchanged, we maintain a cautious stance on the potential height and duration of any rebound. It is recommended that all parties focus on purchasing according to actual needs to avoid cost risks. Future market trends will still depend on factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, upstream raw material movements, and changes in downstream demand. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern before the New Year, with potential new directional shifts in January–February, such as whether maintenance shutdowns will increase ahead of the Spring Festival, which could influence price trends.