PET bottle chip supply demand dynamics in Jan-Nov 2025

In Jan-Nov 2025, China's PET bottle chip industry continued to face an oversupply, with processing margins fluctuating within low range. On one hand, new capacities launched in 2023–2024 were largely released in 2025. On the other hand, competition for market share intensified, and output cut in some bottle chip plants was less than in previous years during the same period.

In Jan-Nov 2025, the average price of water bottle chip in East China was 5,950.02yuan/mt, while the export price was $778.8/mt FOB Shanghai, down 11.81% and 10.99% year-on-year, respectively. The volatility rates for domestic and export price were 3.59% and 2.8% (with 3.8% and 3% in the first half of the year), lower than the 5.35% and 3.95% recorded in the same period last year. Since volatility in the first half of the year was slightly higher than the January–November average, this indicates that price fluctuations in the second half of the year were smaller than in the first half. In absolute terms, prices in the second half of the year mostly fluctuated within the range of 5,600–6,000yuan/mt, while the range in the first half was 5,200–6,500yuan/mt. The highest domestic price in 2025 was 6,447yuan/mt, and the lowest was 5,388yuan/mt. The highest export price was $820/mt FOB Shanghai, and the lowest was $730/mt FOB Shanghai.

In Jan-Nov 2025, the average processing margins were 386.5yuan/mt and $78.3/mt, respectively, down 18.3% and 7.7% year-on-year. (Due to differences in processing costs among producers, cash flow is not compared here. Only the price spread between products and raw material costs is considered. For this year, factors such as IPA and other auxiliary materials are taken into account, with PET bottle chip polymerization costs calculated as 0.859 * PTA + 0.335 * MEG.)

By the end of November, China's designed PET bottle chip capacity remained around 21.68 million tons per year. New capacities added in the first 11 months mainly included Sanfame's 750,000 tons and Sinopec Yizheng's 500,000 tons. The only remaining new capacity by year-end was Fuhai's 300,000 tons. Although the cycle of new PET bottle chip capacity additions was nearing its end in 2025, due to significant expansions in the previous two years, production growth in the first 11 months still exceeded expectations. According to CCF statistics from Huarui Information, PET bottle chip production from January to November 2025 was approximately 16.05 million tons, up 13% year-on-year.

According to CCFGroup statistics, PET bottle chip consumption from January to October 2025 was approximately 13.91 million tons (with November export data not yet released, estimated figures are included), lower than domestic production, indicating a gradual accumulation of inventory. This includes domestic demand of 8.07 million tons and exports of 5.84 million tons (the total export figure is an estimate based on two tariff codes), up 7.3% and 15.2% year-on-year, respectively. Overall, domestic demand growth was weak in the first half of the year, with some months even showing year-on-year declines, but it rebounded significantly starting in the third quarter. Although export orders declined in the latter half of Q2 due to freight factors, exports remained the main source of demand growth for PET bottle chip.

By the end of November, PET bottle chip inventory once again exceeded the 3 million ton mark, reaching approximately 3.2 million tons, an increase of about 940,000 tons compared to the end of the previous year. However, as PET bottle chip producers had already secured orders from major downstream customers in advance and the proportion of contracted sales increased this year, much of the pressure from supply growth was transferred to the spot market. Overall, due to the large volume of spot market supply, bottle chip prices struggled to rise, and processing margins were consistently compressed into negative territory. Since the end of the second quarter, major domestic PET bottle chip producers have jointly reduced or suspended 20% of production, a measure expected to continue into 2026.

Apart from three domestic plants with new capacity plans, only one new PET bottle chip plant was commissioned overseas in 2025: Sasa's 300,000-ton facility. However, as this plant primarily targets the EU and Middle East markets, its impact on the export market for Chinese bottle chip producers is relatively limited.

Regarding trade barriers against Chinese PET bottle chip, the focus this year was on Mexico, Malaysia, and Canada. According to the latest developments, all three countries have announced their final rulings. Canada determined dumping margins of 100.6% and subsidy rates of 57.4% for Chinese exporters, with subsidies amounting to 3,475.23yuan/mt. Mexico imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports: Wankai at 0, Sanfame ranging from $40-260/mt, CRC at $120/mt, and other suppliers at $260/mt. Malaysia's final ruling set duties at 4.58% for Far Eastern, 2.29% for Sanfame, and 11.47% for others. Additionally, India adjusted up the anti-dumping duty for Chinese producer Wankai from $15.54/mt to $40.41/mt, while duties for other Chinese producers/exporters remained unchanged.

Summary

Overall, although new capacity expansion decreased in 2025, supply-side pressure remained significant due to substantial expansions in the previous two years. The primary contradiction in the PET bottle chip market will continue to be the mismatch between high inventory and low demand growth. Market participants are advised to monitor how bottle chip producers manage or transfer inventory pressure around year-end. On the export front, as China maintains a clear cost advantage in upstream raw materials and many overseas plants face replacement or phase-out, it is highly likely that China's PET bottle chip exports will continue to achieve stable growth in the future.