Supply of MMDI keeps tight amid intensive turnaround

Starting from October, driven by favorable factors on the supply side and supported by market demand, the price of MMDI began to rise gradually. From November onwards, domestic maintenance units started to shut down one after another. The unexpected shutdown of Huntsman's Netherlands plant in late-November further exacerbated the tight global supply. Coupled with the pressure from rising costs, major manufacturers raised prices by $200–$350/mt for December shipments to key regions such as Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. This triggered a global uptrend in MMDI prices and also underpinned domestic market prices.

In the domestic spot market, MMDI prices climbed from around 17,350yuan/mt in early-October to 19,700yuan/mt in late-November. However, due to weak demand transmission, prices pulled back slightly after peaking in early-December, with negotiation ranges hovering between 19,400–19,500yuan/mt. Amid sustained tight supply and resilient demand, MMDI prices have temporarily kept consolidating for the time being.

In terms of operating rate of domestic MDI plants, supply dropped significantly in Q4: the operating rate of MDI units plummeted from around 80% to approximately 50%. According to maintenance schedules, the idled units are set to resume production in January.

The concentrated maintenance of domestic MDI facilities in Q4 tightened domestic supply, while the unexpected outage of Huntsman's Netherlands plant boosted export demand and further strained domestic supply. Recently, amid high raw material costs and seasonal factors, downstream buyers have turned cautious and show sidelined attitude, slowing down restocking activities. Nevertheless, supply-side positives are expected to persist in the short term, still supportive to the price.