Brief analysis of refined cotton export to Japan

Affected by factors such as China-Japan relations and changes in end-user demand, China's exports of refined cotton to Japan have fluctuated significantly in recent years. Particularly, the export decline widened during 2024-2025. Specifically, export volume hit a periodic peak in 2023, but dropped by 23.2% y-o-y to 10,001.8 tons in 2024. In Jan-Oct this year, exports reached around 3,872.2 tons, continuing to drop by 52.1% y-o-y. The export performance is expected to remain weak in the short run.

The average price of refined cotton exports to Japan has also seen a notable decline. In 2022, the price stood at a relative high of about $2,625.3/mt, but decreased gradually afterwards. In Jan-Oct this year, the export price was $2,128.4/mt, a y-o-y drop of 2.66%, yet still 37.1% higher than the national average export price of refined cotton.

The destinations for China's refined cotton exports are relatively diversified. In Jan-Oct 2025, China exported refined cotton to 39 countries and regions, with the top 5 destinations accounting for 62.1% of the total export volume. For years, South Korea has maintained its leading position, with South Korea, Japan, the Netherlands and Thailand consistently ranking among the top four destinations. In 2024, Kazakhstan emerged as the biggest dark horse, rising to the second place. Affected by multiple factors including the China-US trade frictions, fluctuations in China-Japan relations and end-user demand, Brazil entered the top four this year, while Japan fell to the sixth place. The proportion of refined cotton exports to Japan dropped from 15.8% in 2023 to 5.3% in Jan-Oct of this year.