Vietnam's Exports Achieve Strong Growth in 2025 Despite U.S. Tariffs

Despite tariff pressures, data from HSBC shows that Vietnam's exports from January to November this year still achieved a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, with its exports to the United States rising to over 30% of its total exports. The impact of the reciprocal tariff measures implemented by the U.S. on Vietnam's economy, particularly its exports, has been far milder than initially projected.

HSBC's latest report indicates that Vietnam's trade flows, foreign direct investment (FDI), and key macroeconomic indicators have all exceeded expectations. This remarkable expansion is largely attributed to a surge in advance orders placed in the second quarter (Q2) before the tariffs took effect.

By the end of November, Vietnam's total trade volume approached $840 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, according to the General Statistics Office. Exports exceeded $430 billion, up 16.1% year-on-year, already surpassing the total export volume of the previous year. Customs data shows that during the same period, exports to the U.S. surpassed $138.6 billion, marking a 27.2% year-on-year increase.

Citing domestic Vietnamese media, HSBC noted a significant shift in Vietnam's export structure to the U.S. Back in 2013, light industrial products such as garments, footwear, and toys accounted for about 60% of total exports, while electronics made up only 13%. Today, electronics have become the leading export category. The domestic sector's exports totaled $102.41 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year, representing only 23.8% of total exports. In contrast, the foreign-invested sector's exports reached $327.73 billion, up 23.1% year-on-year, accounting for 76.2% of total exports.

Vietnam concludes 2025 with robust trade performance, but amid escalating global trade risks, it remains uncertain whether this growth momentum can be sustained into next year. HSBC analysts warn that export prospects for 2026 are overshadowed, with potential impacts difficult to gauge.

The Vietnam Foreign Trade Agency highlights that the country currently faces multiple pressures, including rising protectionism, tightening green supply chain standards, and sluggish global economic recovery. The full effects of mutual tariff increases are expected to materialize in 2026, compounded by weakened demand in major markets due to persistent inflation.