PET bottle chip plants O/R in 2024-2026

Currently, the maintenance plans for domestic PET bottle chip plants in the first quarter have largely been finalized. Before the Spring Festival (from late December to mid-February), it is estimated that about 3.45 million tons of new maintenance capacity will be added (mainly including Yisheng Hainan, Sanfame, CRC, Dragon Special Resin, etc.), while approximately 1.45 million tons of previously idled capacity is expected to restart (including Yisheng Dalian, Sanfame, CRC, etc.). The net additional impact is approximately 2 million tons. However, considering variations in the duration and start times of the maintenance, the maximum effective additional production loss is estimated to be around 1.3 million tons. Combined with previously long-term shutdowns or production cuts, the maximum effective impact on design capacity is estimated to be approximately 5.6 million tons per year. The lowest point of operating rate is expected to occur around mid-to-late February, reaching about 73-74% (based on a design capacity base of 21.47 million tons per year). Starting in March, as previously idled capacity resumes operations (with some individual units potentially undergoing maintenance), the average operating rate is expected to gradually recover to around 81-82%, possibly rising to about 84-85% by April.

The timing of this round of production reductions and shutdowns is similar to that at the beginning of 2025. The difference is that prior to this round, some major PET bottle chip producers had already implemented production cuts of around 20%, which played a positive role in curbing inventory accumulation. Currently, as no new capacity is expected to come online in the first half of 2026, the loss in production capacity will largely directly reflect in market supply. With the arrival of the peak season in the later period, the PET bottle chip market is likely to exhibit a destocking trend. Additionally, considering factors such as holiday logistics suspensions, it is reported that some bottle chip plants plan to moderately reduce their operating rates before the Spring Festival. Overall, the average monthly production loss from January to March is estimated to be around 350,000–400,000 tons (based on a design capacity base of 21.47 million tons per year).

Regarding domestic sales orders for PET bottle chip plants, due to relatively firm spot prices, some plants have largely secured their orders for the first quarter, with many downstream major customers also placing advance orders for delivery in the second quarter. However, actual pick-up performance remains to be seen. As for exports, PET bottle chip plants have been experiencing weak order intake since the second half of 2025, which is partly attributed to exchange rate fluctuations and intensified competition in overseas markets. However, considering that domestic orders diverted for export still supplement export volume, overall shipments remain within an acceptable range, particularly with a noticeable acceleration in delivery speeds towards the end of the year. By the end of 2025, the average inventory at domestic PET bottle chip plants was slightly above 13 days, rising modestly to slightly above 15 days in the first week after the 2026 New Year holiday.

The future shipment performance will largely depend on the recovery of downstream factories after the holiday. Additionally, as some major bottle chip producers are expected to increase their contract sales in 2026, inventory pressure in the market trade segment may become more pronounced. At the same time, it is possible that bottle chip producers may participate in futures delivery with a portion of their inventory to alleviate short-term sales pressure. Furthermore, the market should monitor whether maintenance plans for upstream raw material plants might impact the normal operations of some PET bottle chip plants.