Imported PE market review in 2025

The imported PE market in 2025 was characterized by a predominantly downward trend with fluctuations. The overall trajectory was relatively straightforward, largely aligning with the RMB market. Significant price movements were concentrated between May and July, while changes in other months were relatively modest.

From January to mid-March, the imported PE market was fluctuating.

Market movements from January to February were relatively minor, significantly impacted by the New Year and Spring Festival holidays. Many traders and downstream users took extended breaks, leading to subdued overall negotiations. By late February, some traders held optimistic expectations for the forward market, resulting in slight price increases for certain grades, particularly LDPE and HDPE film. However, downstream acceptance was poor, making actual transactions difficult. The market continued to fluctuate without a clear direction into early March.

From late March to early June, the imported PE market floated down.

LLDPE futures weakened, the RMB-denominated spot market fell, and the imported PE market faced pressure. Moreover, suppliers lowered their new offer prices, while subdued downstream procurement further pushed imported PE prices downward. In April, influenced by tariff-related uncertainties, market prices trended lower, with sluggish transactions at high-price goods. Additionally, during the ChinaPlas, new contract negotiations with foreign suppliers often resulted in lower prices, driving the market downward and sustaining a prolonged weak trend. Notably, at the end of April, news regarding Iranian ports boosted prices for Iranian-origin cargoes, while prices for other grades stabilized with limited upward momentum.

From mid-June to early September, the imported PE market experienced a gradual recovery.

Supported by rising crude oil prices and gains in the RMB futures and spot markets, traders actively raised offers, while some held back stocks in anticipation of further price increases. Downstream buying interest was relatively active, largely driven by speculative demand, with LDPE showing particularly noticeable catch-up gains later in the period. Additionally, starting in July, the LLDPE and HDPE film markets fluctuated higher, as price levels fluctuated within a relatively narrow range.

From mid-September to the end of 2025, the imported PE market experienced a downward shift.

Due to sluggish transactions and weaker-than-expected support from the traditional peak season in Sep, some traders offered modest discounts on select grades to stimulate sales. Subsequently, both the RMB futures and spot markets declined, prompting USD-denominated traders to lower their offers accordingly. Prices across most product categories fell to varying degrees, with LLDPE and LDPE seeing the most notable decreases. Downstream buyers largely followed market trends in procurement and showed resistance to higher offers.

Recently, supported by a rebound in the RMB futures and spot markets, prices have stabilized somewhat. Some traders, encouraged by this trend, have shown willingness to raise offers. However, transactions at higher price levels remain relatively weak, and a wait-and-see attitude continues to dominate market sentiment.

From the perspective of market characteristics, the imported PE market in 2025 has exhibited the following key features:

1. Prices showed relatively minor fluctuations in the first three quarters but declined significantly in the fourth quarter.

In the first three quarters, prices generally moved within a narrow range. While there were occasional short-term fluctuations, upward and downward forces remained largely balanced, and these temporary shifts had limited overall impact on the market. However, the market dynamics shifted markedly in the fourth quarter. Driven by a combination of factors-including changes in the macroeconomic environment, weakening seasonal demand, and the continuous addition and release of domestic supply-price support weakened noticeably, and downward pressure intensified progressively. Various price indices began showing signs of weakness early in the fourth quarter, with declines accelerating thereafter, forming a stark contrast to the earlier period of relative stability.

2. Imports declined while exports increased

Driven by the continuous commissioning of domestic production plants, pressure on imported supplies became increasingly evident. From January to November 2025, China's PE imports totaled 12.0771 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Meanwhile, as large volumes of domestic material required new channels for absorption, exports emerged as an effective alternative pathway. During the same period, China's PE exports reached 998.1kt, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.69%.