2025 China methanol imports beat expectation

In 2025, China saw a significant increase in methanol imports, in contrast to the "decline in imports" expectation which had garnered market attention in the first half of 2025.

In 2025, China's total methanol imports reached 14.405 million tons, representing a 7% year-on-year increase. On a monthly basis, import volumes peaked in August, reaching a single-month high of 1.76 million tons, the highest monthly import level in recent years.

This surge was primarily driven by the tense Iran-Israel situation and intensified U.S. sanctions against Iran, leading to a substantial increase in non-Iranian cargoes imported to supplement supply. However, the impact on the actual arrival of Iranian cargoes was limited, resulting in a significant rise in both Iranian and non-Iranian inflows to China.

From January to April and in July 2025, average monthly imports declined compared to the same periods in 2024, while all other months showed an increase relative to 2024 levels.

China methanol imports by trading partners in 2025

Based on trading partners, the top three countries for China's methanol imports in 2025 were Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. However, due to factors such as US sanctions on Iran, when measured by actual origins, Iranian-origin methanol still accounted for the highest share, reaching 59%. This was followed by regions such as Trinidad and Tobago, Malaysia, and Russia.

Both Malaysia and Iran each commissioned a new facility in 2025, contributing to the increase in import volumes to China.

China is a net importer of methanol, with its export volume being almost negligible compared to imports. In 2025, the total methanol export volume reached 290,000 tons, exceeding the 130,000 tons in 2024.

The increase in China's methanol exports in 2025 can be attributed to two main factors. Firstly, periodic supply shortages in the Southeast Asian market opened up arbitrage opportunities with the Chinese market, directly driving China's export demand. Secondly, ample domestic methanol supply and low prices in China created a competitive advantage for exports. Domestically, lower coal costs boosted the operating rates of coal-based methanol plants in China. Externally, geopolitical tension and the commissioning of new facilities contributed significantly to the growth in imports to China.

China methanol exports by trading partners in 2025