Post-holiday low inventory conducive to cellulose fibers

For fiber prices, inventory is most often the direct influencing factor.

Due to the asymmetric holiday arrangement during the Spring Festival, this period usually leads to inventory accumulation at fiber plants. Therefore, the inventory after the holiday generally determines the operational pressure and price trend of cellulose fibers in the post-Spring Festival market.

We have compiled CCFGroup VSF inventory index on the eighth day of the first lunar month over the past seven years, as shown in the chart below.

It can be seen that post-Spring Festival inventory has generally trended downward over the past three years. Particularly in 2026, the inventory index stood at only 14, slightly higher than in 2021. Even in normal periods, this is a moderately low inventory level. Relative to the post-Spring Festival stage, it represents a notably low figure.

At the same time, VSF plants still hold a considerable number of pending orders. Under such conditions, VSF plants are facing very low operational pressure.

Regarding downstream operations, the resumption of work is still being counted. However, surveys in some regions mainly employing local workers show relatively stable operation. Xinjiang has maintained nearly continuous production, while areas in northern Jiangsu took only a 4-5 day holiday. Starting from the seventh day of the lunar new year, delivery/output at VSF plants has exceeded 100%. Lyocell fiber has shown a similar performance.

Overall, the price outlook for cellulose fibers after the Spring Festival is relatively optimistic. As for the magnitude of price increases, attention will be paid to the cost-pass-through capacity of yarn mills.