Middle East geopolitics overshadow polyester yarn export recovery in H2 2026

According to customs statistics, China's polyester yarn exports reached 49kt in Jun 2026, rising by 2.6% year-on-year and 8.3% month-on-month. Single yarn exports stood at 21kt, ply yarn at 17kt and sewing thread at 11kt. Polyester yarn imports totaled 100 tons in Jun, a year-on-year drop of 60.4%.

In Jan-Jun of 2026, cumulative exports of polyester yarn amounted to 284kt, up 0.8% year-on-year, while imports were 866 tons, declining 32.0% year-on-year.

In Mar-Jun, exports of polyester yarn came under periodic pressure and underperformed expectations, weighed down by two headwinds: the sharp surge in international ocean freight rates and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the H1 exports still posted a modest positive growth on the whole.

Export volumes to major trading partners saw drastic shifts. Shipments to Egypt and Brazil slumped markedly, whereas those to Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico and Cambodia registered robust growth. Middle Eastern destinations such as the UAE, which ranked among top destinations in 2025, dropped out of the top 20 list amid geopolitical tensions.

By product category, the share of single yarn in Jun exports dipped to 43.5%, while the combined share of ply yarn and sewing thread rose to 56.5%. In H1of the year, single yarn exports totaled 130kt, accounting for 45.8% of total volume, with ply yarn and sewing thread making up the remaining 54.2%.

The signing of a peace memorandum between the US and Iran in Jun triggered a plunge in crude oil prices, dragging down polyester yarn prices. This marked the first month-on-month decline in the unit export price of polyester yarn so far in 2026.

Polyester yarn exports delivered strong performance in 2025, delivering a notable uplift to overall demand. However, exports have generally softened since Mar this year, largely attributable to the energy crisis and shipping disruptions stemming from Middle Eastern tensions. The trajectory of Middle East geopolitical developments will be the core determinant of a potential export recovery in H2 of the year. Escalating US-Iran frictions in Jul have heightened external market uncertainties, leaving the recovery pace of subsequent polyester yarn exports highly unpredictable.