Substitution potential of recycled polyester staple fiber

Supported by favorable virgin-recycled price spreads in 2026, recycled polyester staple fiber has achieved higher year-on-year substitution. The industry has a theoretical substitution capacity of 1 million tons, yet actual replacement is limited by flexible production schedules and tight supplies of high-quality popcorn.

Weak virgin polyester staple fiber performance this year has raised market attention on whether recycled polyester staple fiber can serve as an effective substitute. This insight reviewed the current substitution capacity, raw material constraints and year-on-year substitution changes for recycled polyester staple fiber.

Substitutable capacity scale

Quantifying exact substitution capacity is difficult due to the highly flexible and diversified recycled PSF sector. The product range includes hollow-conjugated recycled PSF, recycled PSF for spinning and non-woven specifications, with varied colors including raw white, black and customized colors. Most production lines are flexible with frequent product switching, resulting in dynamically changing substitutable output.

Theoretically, recycled PSF for spinning produced on high-tenacity and low-elongation equipment can fully replace virgin products with qualified raw materials. In practice, substitution is restricted by multiple factors, including virgin-recycled price spreads, profit margins across industrial links, inventory levels, recycled raw material availability and downstream sales channel adaptation. It is roughly estimated that theoretical substitutable capacity stands at around 1 million tons, while actual effective output is lower.

Raw material constraints for 2026

The 2026 virgin-recycled price spread is favorable for recycled PSF substitution. However, the sector faces rising raw material costs. Major PFY manufacturers have cut production, reducing the supply of filament waste and popcorn materials, which negatively impacts the output of recycled PSF. In 2026, quality popcorn made of direct-spun PFY waste prices are relatively firm. When the virgin-recycled PSF spread widened to nearly 2,000yuan/mt in March and April, several manufacturers faced shortages of popcorn, with some Hebei-based plants unable to secure supplies until early May. Recycled bottle flakes have served as a flexible alternative raw material to ease the supply tightness.

Year-on-year substitution trend

Recycled PSF substitution volume has increased year on year. The core driver of the substitution is the price spread between virgin and recycled products, which determines the timing and magnitude of market switching.