PP supply pressure increases

Recently, some plants shut intensively, and some have maintenance plans. How does PP supply change next?

1. Plants shut for turnaround

Currently, the production loss due to maintenance in August was about 185.5kt. From historical data, some plants, such as Zhongtian Hechuang and CSPC II, mainly produce co PP; and Ningbo Fortune, mainly produces homo PP fiber and injection, which has little impact on raffia.

In mid-to-late Aug, it is estimated that the new production loss due to maintenance is about 67.2kt, but the actual situation may be deviated, and the maintenance plan of some plants may be delayed. Seeing from the production, only Oriental Energy II and PetroChina NorthChina PC have a greater impact on homo PP raffia, the rest of the plants are mainly used to produce homo PP injection, fiber and low-MTR co PP.

In July, the lost output due to maintenance was about 268.4kt, an increase of about 15.7 over August.

2. Restart.

The restart of Haiguolongyou has been postponed to August 13. It is reported that the arrival time of individual parts is uncertain, and the specific restart time has yet to be confirmed. ChinaCoal Mengda plans to produce on-spec products on August 18, and the two plants mainly produces homo PP raffia. PetroChina Dushanzi PC #34 and Zhongtian Hechuang #2 also plan to restart in the mid-Aug, but it have limited influence on homo PP raffia. CSPC II and Liaoning Huajin Tongda, which are planned to restart in late Aug, also have little impact on raffia.

3. New plants

The 300kt/year new plant of PetroChina Liaoyang PC is scheduled to start up in mid-August, the 450kt/year PP plant of Qingdao Jineng Technology I is expected to start up in late August, and the 350kt/year PP plant of Fuhaichuang is scheduled to put into production on August 20. Generally, the new plants are mainly for producing homo PP raffia, and the output is expected to be around 40-45kt.

However, at present, the production of homo PP raffia has reached a low level, and some plants producing homo PP raffia has shut for maintenance, which has a strong support for the price of homo PP raffia.

There are uncertainties in maintenance, restart, and the new start-ups, which may be advanced or postponed, and CCFGroup will continue to follow them.