Analysis of the ACN market after the National Day holiday

On the first day after the National Day holiday, ACN offers increased in general. The higher price of ACN was above 10,600yuan/mt. Although the low-end price still existed at nearly 10,200yuan/mt, market players indicated that the price would be adjusted according to the market changes. Viewing from the current circumstances, passive follow-up would dominate the post-holiday market. Sales period in October is shorter than the regular month, ACN traders are either under little pressure or counter some problems with their own completion of the planned volume. However, as the current cost rises, and the supply has not increased with no change of new and old units in the short term, ACN market may still be dominated by high prices. 

The current operating rate of ACN maintain nearly 70% given that Tianchen Qixiang and Liaoning Bora’s units failed to restart and put into production as planned before the holiday. And it was heard that these two units were unlikely to restart in the short term. The post-holiday reversal of views was mainly due to the overwhelmed bearish outlook.

On the demand side, the demand increase is supposed to be mainly from acrylic fiber. After the three units of Jilin Chemical Fiber devices were restarted at a high operating rate, the overall operating rate of acrylic fiber plants jumped from the lowest point of 34% to 87%. The use of raw materials would also be more than doubled, which was expected to increase by about 20,000-30,000 tons according to the current capacity.

To put it simply, ACN market continues to move up after the holiday as Tianchen Qixiang and Liaoning Bora’s units failed to restart and the demand from acrylic fiber plants increased. However, after 7 days of inventory accumulation during the holiday, the actual price rise may gradually narrow down, and the stimulus is partially offered by traders. In addition, since the oversupply of ACN on the market remains unchanged, the later market is unlikely to see a sharp turn. The market will shift from a sharp rise and fall to a fine adjustment within small ranges amid the frequent production cut.