China's PSF imports from Southeast Asia and Africa in Q1, 2024

In Mar 2024, PSF exports of China were 112,000 tons, up 4.9% year on year and 60.0% month on month, and imports were 8,000 tons, down 19.5% year on year and 9.9% month on month. In the first quarter of 2024, exports totaled 279,000 tons, a fall of 7.2% year on year and imports were 26,000 tons, up 27.8% year on year.

HS code 55032000 is synthetic staple fibers, of polyesters, not carded, including virgin PSF and recycled PSF. And the imports from Southeast Asia and African are mainly the recycled PSF. The following are the changes in recent years.

In China's PSF imports, the proportion of Southeast Asia climbed up, having reaching 50.2% in 2023, while in the first quarter of 2024, the proportion declined slightly, to 48.3%.

Since 2019, PSF import volumes from Southeast Asia have reduced. Though imports in 2023 recovered somewhat, the imports have reduced significantly compared to the peak time, like imports from Thailand and Vietnam, and imports from Indonesia also saw a reduction of 100,000 ton-level.

In the import origins of PSF, Myanmar appeared in 2017, and the overall imports were not much. In 2019, one HC re-PSF production line in Hangzhou was moved to Myanmar, and has not started production till now. In 2020, imports declined sharply. In 2021, operation was unstable affected by the epidemic and Feb 1 coup, and the products mainly sold to Europe and the United States. Imports were only 378 tons in 2021, and since 2022, imports were zero.

Vietnam started to exert force in 2018. Following the solid waste ban, Chinese domestic plants moved to foreign countries gradually. Imports from Vietnam in 2018 soared and reached 30,567 tons in 2021. In 2022, imports shrank obviously, while recovered somewhat in 2023, to be 18,638 tons. In the first quarter of 2024, imports reduced to be only 1,871 tons, new low in five years.

Imports from Thailand were 45kt in 2019, and then reduced gradually. The imports put certain impact on Guangdong market. In 2022-2023, there were still new capacities, including HC re-PSF, hollow PSF and colored yarn. In 2023, imports reached 22,042 tons, and in the first quarter of 2024, imports were 5,783 tons.

In addition, due to low operating rate of recycled chemical fiber plants and gradual recovery of travel consumption in 2022, PET flakes supply was sufficient and prices were low in the first half year of 2023, partly sold to Vietnam and Malaysia. PET flakes prices once reached a low of 3,000yuan/mt+.

China imported PSF from Cambodia for the first time in 2021, with a quantity of 1,261 tons, 664 tons in 2022, and zero since 2023.

Imports from Southeast Asia were the highest in 2019, with a quantity of 98,390 tons, taking a share of 45.2%, and then continued to shrink, and recovered somewhat in 2023, with a quantity of 50,422 tons. In the first quarter of 2024, imports were 12,786 tons.

The African market has gradually risen in recent years, especially in 2018-2019, some domestic production lines have also been transferred to Africa. Therefore, the exports to China has increased rapidly from 2019. Imports in 2020 have grown by 28%, mainly from South Africa and Nigeria, but in 2021 imports from South Africa shrank sharply affected by the riots, which caused disruptions of plant operation. Imports from Nigeria in Mar 2021 were good, reaching 2,728 tons. But the imports from Africa were zero in the fourth quarter of 2021. Affected by higher sea freight, freight from Africa and Europe was relatively lower, with large price advantages, and much higher than the China's export price. So sales were mainly to Europe and the United States, and China's imports reduced apparently. In 2022, there were only imports from Uganda of 455 tons, mostly to Europe. Recycled PSF capacities continue to expand in Africa benefited from the edge in sea freight to Europe and no high tax. There are new capacities in Ghana in 2022-2023. Due to the customer shift in 2021, imports of China were limited from 2022. In 2023, imports from Ghana were seen for the first time, and in the first quarter of 2024, imports from Ghana reached 2,533 tons.

Virgin PSF and recycled PSF supply is obviously excessive in China, and producers mostly seek for exports. Originally, exports are forecast to keep rising in 2024, but impacted by the lower prices of recycled PSF in Southeast Asia and Brazil's anti-dumping investigation on China's PSF exports in Mar, exports may face difficulties to grow this year. In 2024, PSF imports are likely to grow slightly.

In addition, some recycled plants in China exit the market in 2023, and some production lines are transferred to overseas. Recycled chemical fiber capacity expansion continues in overseas markets in recent years. Capacity in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Africa increases, and in 2024, there are new capacitity expansion plans in Indonesia.