Could a steady rebound trend expected in cotton linter market?

Since late Aug to the beginning of Sep, hand-picked seed cotton has been gradually harvested, and a small number of ginners have started purchasing operations mainly on trial basis, and processing cotton wadding. This year, the ginners have a relatively low willingness to rush for purchasing, and the price of seed cotton has experienced twists and turns with obvious fluctuations. At present, a small amount of new cottonseed has arrived at the market, with prices remaining stable for the time being. Cotton linter market has seen a "bottoming-out rebound".

Recently, the harvest of seed cotton in Shandong, Hebei and Xinjiang has gradually increased, and some ginners have successively started purchasing. Ginners processing hand-picked cotton in Xinjiang have begun purchasing, but the overall procurement is relatively cautious, and the market supply of seed cotton is not large. The purchasing price of hand-picked seed cotton has dropped from 7.6-7.7yuan/kg to 7.2-7.4yuan/kg currently. Mechanized harvesting of machine-picked seed cotton has not yet been carried out on a large scale, and the advance purchasing price of machine-picked seed cotton has also declined slightly, standing at around 6.3-6.4yuan/kg. For machine-picked seed cotton with high impurity content and high moisture content, the price is about 6.2yuan/kg. Many ginners are still in a wait-and-see state, holding off on starting purchasing.

At present, a small quantity of new cottonseed has arrived at the market, and it is generally a transition period between old and new supplies. The supply of high-quality cottonseed is limited, and prices are mainly stable for the time being. In Shandong, the price of cottonseed is around 2.68-2.72yuan/kg (about 2,700yuan/mt), while the spot price of cottonseed in Xinjiang is around 2.5yuan/kg (about 2,500yuan/mt).

Currently, the market supply of hand-picked seed cotton is gradually increasing. It is expected that mechanized harvesting of machine-picked seed cotton in Xinjiang will be carried out sequentially in late Sep. As a large amount of machine-picked seed cotton comes onto the market from the end of Sep to Oct, the market supply of cottonseed will also increase significantly, putting pressure on prices. Cottonseed prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 2,200-2,500yuan/mt. At present, the operating rates of cottonseed oil and delinting mills are low, and most of them are in a shutdown and wait-and-see state, waiting for the arrival of the new pressing season. Cotton linter market is in a transition period of old and new supply. The spot supply of cotton linter in Xinjiang and Shandong is limited, and suppliers are reluctant to sell at low prices, leading to a bottoming-out rebound in prices with an increase of about 100-150yuan/mt. In Xinjiang, the current price of cotton linter for industry-grade refined cotton is around 3,100-3,200yuan/mt, and that for food-grade refined cotton is around 3,300-3,400yuan/mt.

To sum up, since late Aug to the beginning of Sep, hand-picked seed cotton has been gradually arriving at the market. The ginners have been purchasing cautiously, with small purchasing volume, and their operations mainly focus on processing cotton wadding. As a large amount of new cottonseed has not yet arrived at the market in a transition period between old and new supplies, prices are mainly stable for the time being. With the acceleration of the harvesting pace of machine-picked seed cotton from the end of Sep, especially after the National Day holiday, the market supply of new cottonseed will increase significantly, which will still put pressure on prices. It is expected that cottonseed prices will fluctuate within the range of 2,200-2,500yuan/mt. Cotton linter prices have rebounded from the bottom during the current transition period. Many cottonseed oil and delinting mills plan to start operations at an appropriate time after the National Day holiday. Before a large amount of new cotton linters are launched on the market, the prices are still expected to keep firm.