Is September's PET export drop an anomaly?

In September 2025, China's PET bottle chip exports experienced another month-on-month decline. The decline in actual PET bottle chip exports in September each year is not coincidental but rather the result of multiple factors, including downstream demand cycles, production and restocking rhythms, holiday effects, and macroeconomic statistics.

First, the seasonal cycle of downstream demand. Since PET bottle chips are primarily used in beverage packaging, we will use this as an example. Globally, the second quarter and early third quarter (April to August) are the peak consumption seasons for beverages. To meet this peak season, domestic and international beverage manufacturers engage in continuous procurement and stocking 1–3 months in advance (i.e., from the end of the previous year to June or July of the current year), which often leads to a peak in March of the following year.

By September and October, downstream demand enters a slack season. Summer in the Northern hemisphere has essentially ended, and the weather is cooling down, while the Southern hemisphere has not yet entered summer. As a result, beverage consumption naturally declines. At this point, downstream customers already have high inventory levels and do not need to engage in large-scale procurement. Therefore, new sale volumes decrease significantly, leading to a decline in export data. Of course, customs export data reflects "customs declaration" figures. Shipments concentrated in August are reflected in August's customs data. In September, due to weakened demand and the end of pre-holiday "rush shipping," the volume of customs declarations naturally decreases, resulting in a month-on-month decline in the data. This factor also has a certain indirect impact.

Second, the shift in production and stocking rhythms. The first half of the year is the concentrated delivery period for orders. Chinese PET bottle chip factories operate at full capacity during this time, producing and exporting large quantities of goods to meet global summer demand. Historical data shows that export volumes from April to August are often relatively high during the year. September, however, is a transitional period. Summer orders have largely been delivered, while stocking orders for the year-end (Christmas and New Year) have not yet started shipping on a large scale. This gap leads to a temporary decline in export volumes. However, after the National Day holiday, PET bottle chip factories typically rush to export, shipping a batch of overseas orders intensively. Of course, if there are changes in shipping schedules or freight costs during the year, or if prices drop to a yearly low, end-user plants may procure in advance, which is one reason why shipment volumes in November also peak in some years.

In summary, this fluctuation trend can be viewed as a complete business cycle:

Q1–Q2 (January–June): Stocking period. Preparations for the Northern hemisphere's summer beverage peak season, with export peaks typically occurring in March and May.

Q3 (July–August): Final push and peak period. Summer consumption peak season, also the final delivery period for stocking orders, with exports generally remaining high during the year.

September: Adjustment and transition period. Summer demand ends, inventory levels are high, new sales decrease, and the National Day holiday impacts exports, leading to a significant decline.

Q4 (October–December): New stocking period. Preparations for the year-end western Christmas and New Year consumption peak, as well as for the following spring, usually lead to a rebound in exports.

It is important to note that this pattern is based on general circumstances. In some years, extreme weather (such as an unusually hot autumn), significant global macroeconomic fluctuations, sharp changes in crude oil prices affecting raw material costs, or special demand from a major export market can disrupt this pattern. Therefore, the decline in PET bottle chip exports in September can be understood as a necessary "halftime break" and rhythm adjustment for the industry after the high-intensity output in the first half of the year. Of course, given the highly competitive export market this year, PET bottle chip factories face challenges in negotiating overseas orders. Further attention is needed on the negotiations for new annual contracts with overseas customers and subsequent procurement orders.