ICE cotton futures rise on weaker US dollar, trade deal hopes

ICE cotton futures continued to rise yesterday amid a weaker US dollar and optimism over a possible trade deal. However, trade tensions persisted, and with the US government shutdown entering its fourth consecutive week, the release of key reports, including the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), has been delayed, slowing information flow.

ICE December cotton futures settled at 64.56 cents per pound, up 0.36 cent. The contract has recorded a cumulative gain of 82 points over the last three trading sessions. Other contracts also settled higher, ranging between 5 and 36 points in the previous session.

Total trading volume on ICE was reported at 52,963 contracts, indicating active market participation. Cleared contracts on the previous Friday stood at 31,106, reflecting moderate settlement activity before the weekend. The average daily volume for the previous week was 34,799 contracts, showing an increase in the current week’s trading levels.

ICE data showed that, as of October 24, 2025, the deliverable No. 2 cotton contract inventory stood at 17,552 bales, unchanged from the previous day’s level.

The US dollar weakened against both the euro and the Australian dollar on Monday, as optimism over a potential trade deal boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for the greenback. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated cotton cheaper for holders of other currencies, providing additional export competitiveness for US cotton.

Market participants noted that optimism over a potential trade deal involving agricultural commodities is lending renewed support to cotton futures. Analysts said that all indicators point to a trade deal that includes agriculture, which would be a major positive for cotton demand.

However, ongoing trade tensions between major economies continue to weigh on the broader demand outlook for cotton despite the improving sentiment.

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), soybean futures rose to a four-month high on Monday, as traders anticipated that China might soon resume purchasing US farm products.

Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has delayed the release of several key economic and agricultural reports, including the USDA’s WASDE, further slowing cotton market information flow.

As of this morning (Indian Standard Time–IST), ICE December 2025 cotton was trading at 64.73 cents per pound (up 0.17 cent), cash cotton at 62.06 cents (up 0.36 cent), the March 2026 contract at 66.18 cents (up 0.11 cent), the May 2026 contract at 67.43 cents (up 0.13 cent), the July 2026 contract at 68.55 cents (up 0.10 cent), and the October 2026 contract at 68.31 cents (up 0.21 cent). A few contracts remained unchanged from their previous closing levels, with no trades recorded so far today.