Global FDI dips 3% in H1 2025 amid weak investor sentiment: UNCTAD

Global foreign direct investment (FDI) fell 3 per cent in the first half (H1) of 2025, extending a two-year slump as trade tensions, high interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty kept investors cautious, according to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The drop was driven by developed economies, where cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As)—which normally make up a large share of their FDI—fell 18 per cent to $173 billion, UNCTAD said in its latest Global Investment Trends Monitor.

Developing economies fared better overall, with flows remaining flat, though trends diverged by region. Inflows rose 12 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean, 7 per cent in developing countries in Asia but fell 42 per cent in Africa.

High borrowing costs and economic uncertainty continued to squeeze investment in industry and infrastructure in H1 2025. Announcements of greenfield projects—when firms build new operations abroad—fell 17 per cent in number, driven by a 29 per cent decline in supply-chain-intensive manufacturing such as textiles, electronics, and automotives amid tariff uncertainty.

The international project finance—critical for infrastructure development—also declined, with deal numbers down 11 per cent and value 8 per cent. The trend was more positive in developing economies, where project finance deals fell only 2 per cent after two years of sharp declines. Despite fewer deals, the total value jumped 21 per cent, lifted by a few large-scale projects in Panama, the United Arab Emirates, and Uzbekistan. A broad recovery has yet to emerge.

Despite fewer projects, the value of global greenfield investment rose 7 per cent, lifted by major projects in artificial intelligence (AI) and the digital economy. For example, the United States recorded $237 billion in new greenfield projects in H1 2025—nearly matching the 2024 total and four times the past decade’s half-year average. More than half of the value came from AI-related sectors, particularly semiconductors (~$103 billion) and data centres (~$27 billion).

Investment in sectors critical to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) continued to fall in early 2025. SDG-related investment projects in developing countries were down 10 per cent in number and 7 per cent in value, following steep declines last year. Projects in least developed countries (LDCs) are on track to fall another 5 per cent in 2025, possibly hitting their lowest level since 2015.

Internationally financed projects—including those in transport and utilities—remained about 25 per cent below the decade average. In LDCs, project finance in infrastructure fell another 85 per cent in value. Greenfield infrastructure activity declined 31 per cent in value and 25 per cent in number, led by sharp contractions in Latin America and the Caribbean (–78 per cent in value and–43 per cent in number).

Renewable energy investment, the largest SDG-relevant sector, also weakened. Globally, international project finance in the sector—which has accounted for nearly two-thirds of global totals in recent years—fell another 9 per cent in number and 10 per cent in value.

Global greenfield projects in renewable energy also declined 55 per cent in number and 21 per cent in value. In developing economies, projects fell 23 per cent. In LDCs, they declined by 31 per cent in number and 18 per cent in value.

Investment in water and sanitation fell 40 per cent, with no new projects in Africa or LDCs and a 97 per cent decrease in Latin America and the Caribbean. Only agrifood systems and health showed positive trends in developing economies, with investment holding steady in agrifood and rising 37 per cent in health, driven primarily by new projects in Asia.

The global investment climate will remain challenging through the rest of 2025. Geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, economic fragmentation, and efforts to de-risk supply chains continue to weigh on flows. Still, easing financial conditions, rising M&A activity in the third quarter, and higher overseas spending by sovereign wealth funds could support a modest rebound by year-end.