China's PSF imports from Southeast Asia and Africa in Jan-Sep, 2023

In Sep, 2023, PSF exports of China were 99,700 tons, up 14.5% year on year and down 1.8% month on month, and imports were 9,100 tons, up 16.9% year on year and down 7.1% month on month. In the first nine months of 2023, exports totaled 904.4kt, an increase of 21.1% year on year and imports amounted to 71.8kt, up 6.1% year on year.

HS code 55032000 is synthetic staple fibers, of polyesters, not carded, including virgin PSF and recycled PSF.  And the imports from Southeast Asia and African are mainly the recycled PSF.  The following are the changes in recent years.

PSF imports from Southeast Asia reduced gradually in recent years, especially the imports from Vietnam, which have declined significantly.

In the import origins of PSF, Myanmar appeared in 2017, and the overall imports were not much.  In 2019, one HC re-PSF production line in Hangzhou was moved to Myanmar, and has not started production till now. In 2020, imports declined sharply. In 2021, operation was unstable affected by the epidemic and Feb 1 coup, and the products mainly sold to Europe and the United States. Imports were only 378 tons in 2021, and since 2022, imports were zero.

Vietnam started to exert force in 2018. Following the solid waste ban, Chinese domestic plants moved to foreign countries gradually. Imports from Vietnam in 2018 soared and reached 30,567 tons in 2021. Imports in 2022 shrank largely, only reaching 10,773 tons, a fall of 64.8% from 2021. In Jan-Sep, 2023, imports reached 13,015 tons.

Imports from Thailand were 45kt in 2019, and then reduced gradually. The imports put certain impact on Guangdong market. There were still new capacities, including HC re-PSF, hollow PSF and colored yarn. A few plants started up in 2022. In 2022, imports were 17,208 tons. In Jan-Sep 2023, imports reached 16,891 tons.

In addition, due to low operating rate of recycled chemical fiber plants and gradual recovery of travel consumption in 2022, PET flakes supply was sufficient and prices were low in the first half year of 2023, partly sold to Vietnam and Malaysia. PET flakes prices once reached a low of 3,000yuan/mt+.

In 2021, the imports from Cambodia were 1,261 tons, 664 tons in 2022, and zero till now in 2023.

Imports from Southeast Asia totaled 98,390 tons in 2019, taking a share of 45.2%, 40,258 tons in 2022, 44.7% and 36,842 tons in Jan-Sep, 2023, with a share of 51.3%.

The African market has gradually risen in recent years, especially in 2018-2019, some domestic production lines have also been transferred to Africa. Therefore, the exports to China has increased rapidly from 2019. Imports in 2020 have grown by 28%, mainly from South Africa and Nigeria, but in 2021 imports from South Africa shrank sharply affected by the riots, which caused disruptions of plant operation. Imports from Nigeria in Mar 2021 were good, reaching 2,728 tons. But the imports from Africa were zero in the fourth quarter of 2021. Affected by higher sea freight, freight from Africa and Europe was relatively lower, with large price advantages, and much higher than the China's export price. In 2022, there were only imports from Uganda of 455 tons, mostly to Europe. Recycled PSF capacities continue to expand in Africa benefited from the edge in sea freight to Europe and no high tax. There are new capacities in Ghana in 2022-2023. After the customers' shift in 2021, the imports to China were limited since 2022, and in Jun 2023, imports from South Africa and Nigeria were seen with small quantity and prices were relatively low.

Due to the trend of economic recession in Europe and the United States, exports are expected to be general in 2023, but Chinese supply pressure is greater, plants are actively seeking for exports, and exports are expected to increase apparently, to be above 1.1 million tons. Meanwhile, with the oversupplied situation in China, PSF imports are supposed to be hard to rise apparently in 2023. Due to the continual capacity expansion, the exports may keep improving in 2024.