China PET bottle chip export delivery hits new high in Nov

According to the Customs, China PET chip export volume totals 579kt in Nov 2023, y-o-y rising 30.66%, including 103.6kt for HS code 39076910, y-o-y up 119%, and 475.4kt for HS code 39076110, y-o-y growing 20%. If combine two HS codes, PET bottle chip exports totaled 520-530kt in Nov, YOY growing 30.5%. Monthly delivery volume hit new high. 

The total exports of domestic PET bottle chip and PET fiber chips from January to November 2023 amounted to 4.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Among them, the HS code 39076910 accounted for 760,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, and the HS code 39076110 accounted for 4.145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Estimate from two HS codes and shipping statistics from manufacturers, the estimated export volume for PET bottle chip in the first 11 months was around 4.48 million tons (assessment), a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, which is close to last year's total export delivery volume.

Looking at PET bottle chip export order intake in November, the total reached around 440,000 tons, an increase of 13.9% compared to the same period last year. In fact, due to the outstanding performance of export sales from August to October, the export volume in Nov-Dec was expected to be high. However, the record high for a single month in November still exceeded our expectation. In the first half of this year, there was a temporary decline in export delivery in Q2 compared to the same period last year due to the excessive overseas orders in Q4 2022. However, coupled with China's domestic raw material price advantage, the monthly average export volume for Chinese PET bottle chip in the second half of the year was close to 440,000 tons, which basically filled the sales gap in the first half of the year. Additionally, the export market significantly recovered in November. Firstly, prices dropped to the lowest point of the year in the fourth quarter. Secondly, there was consistent purchasing demand in the market, and trading of small and medium-sized orders was tolerable. Thirdly, major overseas manufacturers had stock build requirements before the Christmas and Spring Festival holidays, which are mainly to be delivered around the holiday.

Looking ahead, since November last year, China PET bottle chip factory export order intake has been around 4.87 million tons. Subtracting the shipment volume of approximately 4.48 million tons in the first 11 months of this year, it is estimated that the export delivery volume in December will be close to 400,000 tons. The annual estimate is likely to exceed 4.8-4.85 million tons, surpassing our previous expectations. Based on the current December order intake situation, the export delivery condition in the first quarter of next year is expected to continue to perform well, with a monthly average of over 400,000 tons. However, several factors will affect the actual shipment volume, including February, during which most workdays involve the Spring Festival holiday.