Will polyester polymerization rate high during this Spring Festival?

Large polyester companies successively announced turnaround plan for the Spring Festival holiday recently. The operation status of polyester units during the Spring Festival of 2024 can be largely seen. According to the preliminary estimate, the polyester polymerization rate is estimated to be above 88% in Jan and may be around 85-86% in Feb, and the specific status will depend on the resumption of plants after Spring Festival holiday.

What is the level of this polymerization rate? Compared with previous years, it can be seen that the polyester polymerization rate in Jan-Feb, 2024 is expected to be apparently higher than last year, lower than 2021-2022 but still medium-to-high in recent years.

Remark: it is the preliminary estimate for 2024 and may be adjusted dynamically later.

Totally different from the same period of last year, the operating rate of PFY plants was apparently high in 2024 while that of PET bottle chip plants obviously fell and that of PSF plants was medium.

In fact, before large polyester companies announced their turnaround plan, players expected the polyester polymerization rate to be high during this Spring Festival holiday as PFY and PFY producers did not encounter big inventory burden and downstream plants saw resilience in terms of run rate and orders before Spring Festival holiday. PET bottle chip plants still ran at low capacity, dragging down the overall run rate. In addition, large companies started turnaround recently, indicating the concerns on the market.

For factories, sales apparently increased recently, which was the transfer of inventory burden during the Spring Festival theoretically, but many were the advanced replenishment. Actually, stocks of cotton yarn decreased more recently. For the time being, there is still uncertainty about the extent to which the stockpiled goods in the hands of traders can be cashed after the holiday. The overall risk awareness of enterprises is high in recent years. Downstream buyers are more inclined to purchase under low price. After feedstock price gradually becomes firm recently, companies doubt the price and market acceptance after Spring Festival holiday. Therefore, many polyester companies and downstream plants are still inactive in chasing up and choose to reduce operating rate to transit and wait for clearer market trend.