Lowest polyester polymerization rate appears, diversified among products

By Feb 7, the polyester polymerization rate has been lower than 80% in Chinese mainland after units started turnaround, slightly lower than the earlier anticipation.

Since Jan 1 2024, polyester capacity in China has been adjusted to 79.84 million tons/year. The capacity of Feb was still at79.84 million tons/year.

The restart after holiday should be noted. The polyester polymerization rate is expected to be around 89% in end-Feb but the final status depends on the post-holiday resumption and the implementation of turnaround in other plants.

Judging from the current situation, the polyester polymerization rate is significantly higher than the same period in 2023, but slightly lower than the same level in 2021-2022. Compared with the extreme level of last year, it is still a relatively normal seasonal fluctuation.

Many PET bottle chip plants have scaled down production in the second half of 2023 due to big operation pressure and its run rate has touched bottom in Nov 2023. Current run rate remained low compared with previous years. The restart of units was not very fast. Many new plants are about to start operation later. Supply of PET bottle chip still faces rising pressure.

PSF companies also face pressure. There is no apparent replenishment on PSF market before Spring Festival holiday. The production curtailment of PSF plants is higher than anticipation due to the pressure from profit and inventory. Current low operating rate of PSF plants is largely flat with the low level in last year. The overall operation is cautious.

Current operating rate of PFY plants is higher than the previous years, especially compared with the same period of last year. PFY plants saw good sales in 2023 and obviously higher profit than last year. Presales were smooth before Spring Festival. Therefore, PFY companies have good mentality. However, to control the inventory and risk, the actual turnaround is still bigger than earlier anticipation.

According to the preliminary restarting and maintenance plan (some factories also plan to have turnaround after Spring Festival holiday), a general simulation is carried out, and it is expected that the subsequent polyester polymerization rate may show the following trajectory.This kind of simulation is based on a series of assumptions, such as the scheduled maintenance of the device, and the scheduled restart of the maintenance units after holiday and so on. In fact, there must be some variables.