Home >> Textile News >> Several PX plants restart, but inventory continues decreasing

Several PX plants restart, but inventory continues decreasing

2025-06-09 09:18:21 CCFGroup

Since the end of Apr, PX economics, which was squeezed sharply earlier, has been recovering. Besides from the macro economic relief and higher-than-expected polyester operating rate, PX production cuts due to negative margin earlier coupled with plant turnarounds, also drove up PX prices.

However, CCFGroup forecasts PX plant operating rate would increase significantly in end May till Jun both in and outside China, either because of restarts after completion of maintenance or due to production increase after economics improvement.

Asian PX plant turnarounds from May 26 till July
	Company	Capacity (kt/yr)	Turnaround
Upcoming restart or recovery	ZPC	9000	O/R cut on May 13, recovering by 10 percentage points to 80-90% on May 26
	CNPC Liaoyang	700	T/a from May 20 till May 26
	CNOOC Huizhou	1500	T/a from end-Mar till early Jun
	GS	400	Shut in early Feb, to restart in mid-Jun
	Idemitsu	610	Shut unexpectedly in end-Apr and mid-May, to restart in end-May or early Jun
	SK Ulsan	400	T/a from Apr 21 for 90 days or 45 days
	FCFC	300	T/a from Apr 9, restarting on May 27
	Petro Rabigh	1340	T/a from Apr 15 for 2 months
	Aromatics Malaysia	550	T/a from early May, till late Jun
	TPPI	780	T/a from mid-May for 2~3 weeks, till early Jun
Maintenance or plan	ENEOS	190	T/a from early May for 2 months
	Sinopec Jinling	700	PX O/R to cut due to reformer maintenance in mid-Jun
	Sinopec Tianjin	390	T/a in Jun-Jul for 2 months
	Fujia Dahua	1400	T/a in Jul for 2 months
	ZPC	2000	T/a in Jul for 40 days, but uncertain
	Weilian Chemical	1000	One line in late Jun for 1 month, but delayed, maybe in Jul
	Fuhaichuang	1600	One line in mid-Jun, the other in end-Jun, for 2 months
	Thai Oil	530	T/a in Jul-Aug for 45 days
	Idemitsu	270	T/a from early Jun till end-Aug

In addition, with the recovering of economics, some plants could increase the operating rates gradually, further pushing up the overall operating rate.

Forecast based on the turnaround schedule, China PX plant operating rate is expected to further increase in Jun to hit high of 86-87%, and Asian overall operating rate is estimated to reach 76-77%, both up an estimated 8 percentage points from May 23.

Afterwards, PX operating rate could drop again after mid-Jun, with some Chinese plants undergoing maintenance. If those plants are to shut as scheduled, China PX operating rate is likely to decline by 10 percentage points from the high in mid-Jun, and Asian overall rate down by about 5 percentage points.

Therefore, China domestic PX production is expected to decrease again after mid or late Jun and especially in Jul. If by then polyester plant operating rate remains high, demand for PX would get supported. And in addition, there could be new PTA capacity coming on stream in Jun or Jul. Then, PX inventory would decrease again in Jul.

From the perspective of demand, the gap between demand for PX and domestic PX production is estimated at 800kt for Jun, and 1.1 million tons for Jul, a gap to be sated by imports. And if the import volume does not live up to the gap, it would indicate inventory reduction. After the continuous inventory reduction, the supply is expected to further tighten.

Note:

In PX supply and demand dynamics, demand +Δinventory = domestic production + imports

If demand exceeds production plus imports, the inventory decreases, andΔinventory value is negative.

In the chart above, it shows the gap between demand–domestic production, if it exceeds imports, theΔinventory value is negative. It indicates inventory reduction.

In a conclusion, PX supply is expected to be tight, and the focus is on demand. It should be watched closely whether PTA plants could unexpectedly cut production due to tight PX supply, and whether polyester plants would rein in operating rate to deal with high feedstock cost and high downstream inventory.

Keywords: