How will MEG port inventories evolve during a period of low arrivals?

This week, MEG arrivals at East China main ports remained limited, with volumes forecast at just 76,000 tons. Of this, Zhangjiagang is expected to receive around 10,000 tons. With sparse incoming cargo, port inventories are projected to fall to around 200,000 tons after the Dragon Boat Festival, and spot liquidity in mainstream trading tanks will likely tighten further.

May MEG imports are on track to remain subdued. Cargoes to Zhangjiagang and Taicang have declined sharply-down more than 55% from April-due mainly to reduced shipments from Saudi Arabia and Canada, affected by maintenance at JUPC1 and PetroRabigh as well as shipping schedule delays. Taking vessel arrivals and customs clearance timing into account, total May imports are estimated at roughly 550kt.

Looking ahead to June, MEG import growth will remain limited. Two Canadian MEG units are scheduled for two weeks of maintenance in late May, and some contract volumes have already been cut. Meanwhile, U.S. spot cargo arrivals have ended, with only a few contract vessels due in June. Saudi supply is expected to rise, but total June imports are still likely to stay below 600kt.

Given constrained domestic supply and continued destocking through May–June, MEG port inventories are set to decline further-possibly reaching as low as 600kt in June.

In May, Zhangjiagang led the inventory drawdown, accounting for roughly 30% of the nationwide reduction. This trend is expected to continue into June, with local inventories likely falling toward 200kt. In Taicang, deep-sea cargo arrivals will cluster in June, and local inventory movements will hinge on vessel discharge schedules. In Changshu and Nantong, stock levels are expected to decline after warehouse warrant cancellations and outbound flows. Inventories at other ports will likely see broad fluctuations depending on discharge activity.

Spot basis has fluctuated sharply this month, with polyester producers mostly relying on contract volumes and on-hand inventories. Unless polyester run rates decline significantly, some restocking demand remains. With raw material prices retreating midweek, downstream interest in bottom-fishing has picked up. Going forward, focus will remain on spot deal volumes and port destocking progress.