India's Yarn Market Faces Seasonal Weakness, with Widening Divergence Across Regions and Product Categories

Recently, India's polyester and viscose yarn markets have entered a typical period of seasonal sluggishness. Currently, the ordering cycle for winter garments has largely concluded, while the demand window for summer apparel has not yet opened, leading to generally weak purchasing sentiment at the end-user level. In major textile hubs like Ludhiana and Surat, yarn prices are hovering at low levels, and the market is in a stalemate characterized by "quoted prices without actual transactions." However, a closer look reveals significant internal market divergence due to differences in region, product category, and raw materials.

The polyester and viscose yarn markets centered around Ludhiana (North) and Surat (South) are facing pressure from both supply and demand sides. Downstream fabric and garment manufacturers, constrained by tight cash flow, have widely adopted strategies of cautious purchasing and extended payment cycles, significantly dampening trading activity. The continuous influx of price-competitive fabrics from China into the Indian market is directly substituting for some local yarn demand, putting additional pressure on India's domestic spinning mills. Against this backdrop, polyester yarn prices in Ludhiana remain largely stable, while viscose yarn prices in the Surat and Mumbai markets have seen a slight decline. The relative price stability reflects cost support more than demand pull.

In stark contrast to the weakness in synthetic fibers, the cotton market in North India has experienced an independent rally. Despite similarly limited actual demand for downstream cotton yarn, prices have risen, with the core driver coming from the policy level. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), as a state-owned policy institution, has initiated "market intervention procurement" during periods of low market prices to protect farmers' interests. CCI's active purchases in the spot market have effectively absorbed some supply, providing a solid floor for cotton prices and directly driving up spot prices in the northern cotton-producing regions. This move has created a temporary divergence between rising raw cotton prices and weak downstream yarn demand, increasing cost pressures for spinning mills and potentially further squeezing their profit margins.

In the short term, the overall weak trend in India's yarn market is expected to persist until the summer order cycle (typically centered around lightweight fabrics) officially begins, which could inject new vitality into the market. Market participants are closely monitoring two key variables: the impact of Chinese imports—the price and volume of fabric imports from China will continue to be a significant factor influencing the operating rates and pricing strategies of India's domestic spinning mills; and the pace of CCI procurement—the procurement policies and intensity of the Cotton Corporation of India will be crucial in determining domestic cotton price trends and, consequently, cotton yarn costs.

In summary, the Indian textile market is in a complex adjustment period. "Weak demand" is the universal backdrop, but "policy support" and "import competition" are shaping price curves in different segments. This internal divergence tests the precision of enterprises' raw material procurement and market strategies.