Syngas-based MEG run rate surges past 80%-Can the momentum hold?

As of mid-August 2025, syngas-based MEG operating rates have exceeded 80%, marking the highest level since January 2020. This increase was driven by the restart of Guanghui's unit, stable output from CNCEC's facility, and the postponement of Jianyuan's maintenance. With Tianying resuming operations this week, run rates are expected to rise slightly above 81%.

Short-term upside remains, contingent on the restart of Woneng and Shenhua Yulin units. Woneng began maintenance in early August and is expected to resume by late August. Shenhua Yulin reduced rates on August 11 for catalyst replacement, with recovery anticipated around late August to early September. If both units restart on schedule and other facilities maintain stable output, syngas-based MEG operating rates could peak at 83–84% by month-end.

Despite the short-term boost in operating rates, sustained high rate levels are unlikely. Several facilities have scheduled maintenance in September that could introduce volatility. Jianyuan plans to shut down in early September for approximately one month. Tongliao GEM Chemical is also expected to undergo maintenance during the month, though the exact timing remains unconfirmed. Tianye may conduct a minor one-week overhaul, pending final scheduling. Additional units have tentative maintenance plans that are still under evaluation. Given the uncertainty around implementation timelines, it's difficult to model precise load trajectories. However, even under a conservative scenario where all planned outages proceed, overall syngas-based MEG operating rates are expected to remain above 70%, indicating a relatively resilient baseline.

In Q4, maintenance activity will be sporadic. Run rate fluctuations will depend more on production economics and operational stability. Although MEG cash margins have declined 100-200yuan from earlier highs due to rising coal costs, they remain historically favorable and are not expected to deter production. Seasonal factors-such as winter gas supply constraints and pollution controls-may affect operations later in the year.