Iran's gas restrictions cause reduced methanol shipments to China

Discussions about Iran's gas restrictions in winter have been brought up repeatedly when it is approaching end of September.

If we look back at the gas restriction situation in the winter of 2024, we can use last year's figure to get a rough idea for this year. In 2024, Iran's gas restrictions commenced in October before escalating to widespread implementation in November. And the recovery mainly took place in late March or early April of 2025.

In 2025, Iran's natural gas import plan is still under negotiation, and official media have yet to report clearly on any supply relief. Therefore, we estimate that the situation of natural gas supply shortages in 2025 will be similar to last year.

Iran's methanol plants and gas restrictions in 2024

Gas restrictions affect the shipments to China. In 2024, the gas restrictions initially commenced in October, causing cargoes arriving at China beginning to reduce in November and recording low points in February and March of 2025.

Estimated based on a similar situation of gas restrictions, but current low product inventory at methanol plants in Iran for 2025, the cargoes arriving at China are projected to hit low point in January 2026.

In November 2024, methanol inventory at coastal regions of China recorded yearly high of 1.28 million tons, but then began decreasing in mid-November with cargo arrivals reducing. However, as of Sep 2025, the inventory has broken through 1.6 million tons. Though offloading of cargoes is disrupted by the typhoon in southern China this week, the overall inventory is expected to continue increasing with large amount of imports.

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　　In late Oct 2024, when gas restrictions began, China costal methanol price rebounded in tandem, up from 2,390yuan/mt to 2,770yuan/mt, up 380yuan/mt. But in 2025, as current inventory hovers high and stocks at downstream plants are sufficient, the risk from potential supply reduction could be cushioned and whether price rebound would be capped by high inventory should be watched closely.