China PX imports review and forecast for 2025

Against the backdrop of stagnant new PX capacity in recent years but continued growth in downstream PTA capacity in China, the demand for PX has increased, widening the supply gap. This has led to a rebound in China's PX import volume in 2025.

The total import volume rose by 6.6% year-on-year to 6.16 million tons in the first 8 months of 2025, data from China customs showed.

Imports from the three traditional major import origins all saw increases to varying degrees. The imports from Northeast Asia grew by 1.5% year-on-year, the volume from Southeast Asia by 19.4%, and that from the Middle East achieved a growth rate of 87.2% y-o-y due to the small volume last year.

In terms of Northeast Asia, China PX imports from both Japan and South Korea rebounded. South Korea's exports to Chinese mainland increased by 10.4% year-on-year. This was mainly due to flows of PX back to Chinese market instead of US as gasoline blending demand further weakened.

Despite frequent unplanned plant disruptions this year, Japan's PX exports to China still achieved a 5.2% growth rate in the first 8 months of 2025. While maintaining high contract ratios with China domestic plants, Japanese suppliers relied on inventories and purchases from spot market to supplement contracts, thereby reducing losses from plant failures.

The increment from Southeast Asia primarily came from Hengyi Brunei. Over the past few years, the main direction for intercontinental PX arbitrage was towards the United States. However, as gasoline blending demand gradually subsided and new US tariffs took effect, the arbitrage window closed, leading Hengyi Brunei's PX flows to return to Chinese market.

Data shows that its exports to China from January to August increased by approximately 52.9% year-on-year. However, exports from India and Indonesia to China fell to zero this year. The shutdown of OMPL in India after a brief restart late last year, and the extended maintenance for PX unit in Indonesia this year, both contributed to the decline in exports.

The export increase from the Middle East was mainly attributed to the growth of long-term contract volumes from Kuwait. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, continued to focus its exports on the United States, with some cargoes went to Turkey. However, even with a rebound in Middle Eastern cargoes to China this year, considering that China is set to embark on a new round of PX capacity expansion starting next year, the increasing self-sufficiency rate will continue to suppress imports from the Middle East.

Then, can the imports to China continue the growth trend in the fourth quarter?

In the fourth quarter of 2025, some overseas PX plants will undergo maintenance, including facilities of FCFC, ENEOS, PTT, Satorp, etc., with a combined capacity of 3.11 million tons. The amount of maintenance is relatively lower compared to the first three quarters.

Based on operating rate calculations, Asian PX plant operating rate outside China is expected to increase by about 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter. The rise in operating rate is concentrated in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, two major PX exporters.

Considering the potential further decline in gasoline demand in the fourth quarter, it is possible that more MX could be diverted to PX production, thereby generating additional PX supply.

However, this does not mean that all the increased PX production overseas will translate directly into higher PX imports to Chinese mainland.

Firstly, Turkey's SASA new PTA plant is currently operating at high rate, continuously absorbing PX from the Middle East and Europe, effectively diverting some PX that would otherwise flow back to China after the weakening of the blending demand.

Secondly, the startup of Xinfengming's new PTA facility has been delayed, and the timing of its commissioning will determine the impact on PX imports. Therefore, in terms of fourth-quarter import trends, it will be challenging for all the incremental overseas PX supply to go to Chinese market.

Nevertheless, as the largest PX consumer, China is estimated to see average monthly PX imports in the fourth quarter at around 850,000 tons.